Tight odds clustering around 2°C to 6°C+ stem from ensemble forecast models like Environment Canada's GEM and ECMWF showing divergent high-temperature projections for Toronto's March 24 peak, amid a transitional late-winter air mass. Recent Arctic outflows have cooled the region below the 6°C March 24 historical average, but Lake Ontario moderation and potential southerly jet stream shifts could push readings toward 5°C or higher under variable cloud cover. Trader sentiment hinges on diurnal warming limits and urban heat island boosts at Pearson Airport, the likely resolution site, with 12Z updates expected to refine probabilities as frontal timing clarifies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Toronto le 24 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Toronto le 24 mars ?
2°C 26%
6°C ou plus 25%
4°C 25%
5°C 25%
-4°C ou moins
6%
-3°C
6%
-2°C
11%
-1°C
18%
0°C
18%
1°C
18%
2°C
26%
3°C
19%
4°C
25%
5°C
25%
6°C ou plus
14%
2°C 26%
6°C ou plus 25%
4°C 25%
5°C 25%
-4°C ou moins
6%
-3°C
6%
-2°C
11%
-1°C
18%
0°C
18%
1°C
18%
2°C
26%
3°C
19%
4°C
25%
5°C
25%
6°C ou plus
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight odds clustering around 2°C to 6°C+ stem from ensemble forecast models like Environment Canada's GEM and ECMWF showing divergent high-temperature projections for Toronto's March 24 peak, amid a transitional late-winter air mass. Recent Arctic outflows have cooled the region below the 6°C March 24 historical average, but Lake Ontario moderation and potential southerly jet stream shifts could push readings toward 5°C or higher under variable cloud cover. Trader sentiment hinges on diurnal warming limits and urban heat island boosts at Pearson Airport, the likely resolution site, with 12Z updates expected to refine probabilities as frontal timing clarifies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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