Tight probabilities clustered around 19–21°C stem from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Tel Aviv's March 23 high near 20°C, with a narrow model spread of ±1–2°C reflecting uncertainty in diurnal sea-breeze timing and weak upper-level trough passage. Historical Israel Meteorological Service data pegs late-March averages at 19.5°C, but interannual variability from 17–24°C—driven by Mediterranean SST anomalies and subtropical ridging—keeps outcomes competitive. Recent 00z runs slightly favor 20°C via warmer near-surface stability, though afternoon convective potential could differentiate 21°C upside; traders await 12z updates for refined probabilities before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 27%
19°C 25%
21°C 25%
22°C 19%
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
19%
19°C
25%
20°C
27%
21°C
25%
22°C
19%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
18%
20°C 27%
19°C 25%
21°C 25%
22°C 19%
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
19%
19°C
25%
20°C
27%
21°C
25%
22°C
19%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight probabilities clustered around 19–21°C stem from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Tel Aviv's March 23 high near 20°C, with a narrow model spread of ±1–2°C reflecting uncertainty in diurnal sea-breeze timing and weak upper-level trough passage. Historical Israel Meteorological Service data pegs late-March averages at 19.5°C, but interannual variability from 17–24°C—driven by Mediterranean SST anomalies and subtropical ridging—keeps outcomes competitive. Recent 00z runs slightly favor 20°C via warmer near-surface stability, though afternoon convective potential could differentiate 21°C upside; traders await 12z updates for refined probabilities before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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