Ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward Milan's March 23 high temperature clustering at 14-17°C, with 15°C leading at 30% implied probability as the mean of deterministic runs projecting partial clearing and southerly flow. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads: 14°C (26.5%) hedges cloudier, cooler outliers from ICON model physics emphasizing boundary layer stability, while 17°C (21%) captures warmer biases under potential ridging amplification. Historical March 23 highs average 13-15°C at Milano Linate, but current synoptic uncertainty—frontal timing and upper-level trough evolution—keeps 13-16°C viable, muting extremes like 20°C+ (16%) absent heat dome signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 23 mars ?
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
17°C 21%
13°C 18%
10°C ou moins
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
8%
13°C
18%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
17%
17°C
21%
18°C
16%
19°C
12%
20°C ou plus
16%
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
17°C 21%
13°C 18%
10°C ou moins
2%
11°C
8%
12°C
8%
13°C
18%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
17%
17°C
21%
18°C
16%
19°C
12%
20°C ou plus
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS drive trader sentiment toward Milan's March 23 high temperature clustering at 14-17°C, with 15°C leading at 30% implied probability as the mean of deterministic runs projecting partial clearing and southerly flow. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads: 14°C (26.5%) hedges cloudier, cooler outliers from ICON model physics emphasizing boundary layer stability, while 17°C (21%) captures warmer biases under potential ridging amplification. Historical March 23 highs average 13-15°C at Milano Linate, but current synoptic uncertainty—frontal timing and upper-level trough evolution—keeps 13-16°C viable, muting extremes like 20°C+ (16%) absent heat dome signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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