Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 15°C high in Milan on March 20, with 58.5% implied probability, as high-pressure ridging over central Europe ushers in mild southerly flows displacing cooler continental air. Supporting 16°C at 31.5% and 17°C at 14.5%, recent model runs updated March 18 show peak afternoon temperatures stabilizing in the mid-teens amid light winds and partial sunshine, aligning with Milan's March climatology of 13-15°C averages but boosted by an anomalous warm spell. Lower odds for extremes reflect minimal cold front risks per ARPA Lombardia guidance and negligible snowfall threats, though final 00Z runs could nudge probabilities if cloud cover evolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Milan le 20 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Milan le 20 mars ?
15°C 54%
16°C 35%
17°C 13%
18°C 4.3%
$42,909 Vol.
$42,909 Vol.
10°C ou moins
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
54%
16°C
35%
17°C
13%
18°C
4%
19°C
1%
20°C ou plus
<1%
15°C 54%
16°C 35%
17°C 13%
18°C 4.3%
$42,909 Vol.
$42,909 Vol.
10°C ou moins
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
54%
16°C
35%
17°C
13%
18°C
4%
19°C
1%
20°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 2:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a 15°C high in Milan on March 20, with 58.5% implied probability, as high-pressure ridging over central Europe ushers in mild southerly flows displacing cooler continental air. Supporting 16°C at 31.5% and 17°C at 14.5%, recent model runs updated March 18 show peak afternoon temperatures stabilizing in the mid-teens amid light winds and partial sunshine, aligning with Milan's March climatology of 13-15°C averages but boosted by an anomalous warm spell. Lower odds for extremes reflect minimal cold front risks per ARPA Lombardia guidance and negligible snowfall threats, though final 00Z runs could nudge probabilities if cloud cover evolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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