Latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles point to a Dallas high of 80-83°F on March 23, driving trader consensus toward those bins with probabilities tightly clustered above 25%, as southerly winds of 10-20 mph enhance warm air advection from the Gulf. The National Weather Service's point forecast aligns at 82°F under partly cloudy skies, but subtle differences emerge: GFS operational runs peak near 83°F with better afternoon mixing, while ECMWF holds at 81°F amid lingering morning clouds that could cap peaks by 1-2°F. Above-average spring warmth—historical March 23 average is 69°F—bolsters 84°F+ odds at 22.5%, though boundary layer stability introduces uncertainty ahead of evening model updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 28%
80-81°F 23%
84°F or higher 23%
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
29%
84°F or higher
23%
82-83°F 29%
78-79°F 28%
80-81°F 23%
84°F or higher 23%
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
29%
84°F or higher
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles point to a Dallas high of 80-83°F on March 23, driving trader consensus toward those bins with probabilities tightly clustered above 25%, as southerly winds of 10-20 mph enhance warm air advection from the Gulf. The National Weather Service's point forecast aligns at 82°F under partly cloudy skies, but subtle differences emerge: GFS operational runs peak near 83°F with better afternoon mixing, while ECMWF holds at 81°F amid lingering morning clouds that could cap peaks by 1-2°F. Above-average spring warmth—historical March 23 average is 69°F—bolsters 84°F+ odds at 22.5%, though boundary layer stability introduces uncertainty ahead of evening model updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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