Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a sweltering high in Dallas on March 22, with mid-90s outcomes leading at 25.5% for 94-95°F amid a stubborn high-pressure ridge fueling record-shattering warmth across Texas. NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles project peak temperatures of 94-97°F under clear skies and strong subsidence, differentiating these from hotter 98°F+ bets (23.5%) reliant on amplified 500mb height anomalies in outlier runs. Cooler 92-93°F odds (18%) reflect minor model spread from potential afternoon clouds or weak cold air advection, while historical March baselines near 68°F underscore the extraordinary heat dome's influence. Traders eye upcoming 00z model updates for resolution catalysts, as boundary-layer mixing will ultimately dictate the official DFW observation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Dallas le 22 mars ?
Température la plus élevée à Dallas le 22 mars ?
96-97°F 25%
94-95°F 24%
98°F ou plus 22%
92-93 °F 18%
$35,984 Vol.
$35,984 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83 °F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
6%
92-93 °F
18%
94-95°F
24%
96-97°F
25%
98°F ou plus
22%
96-97°F 25%
94-95°F 24%
98°F ou plus 22%
92-93 °F 18%
$35,984 Vol.
$35,984 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83 °F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
6%
92-93 °F
18%
94-95°F
24%
96-97°F
25%
98°F ou plus
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a sweltering high in Dallas on March 22, with mid-90s outcomes leading at 25.5% for 94-95°F amid a stubborn high-pressure ridge fueling record-shattering warmth across Texas. NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles project peak temperatures of 94-97°F under clear skies and strong subsidence, differentiating these from hotter 98°F+ bets (23.5%) reliant on amplified 500mb height anomalies in outlier runs. Cooler 92-93°F odds (18%) reflect minor model spread from potential afternoon clouds or weak cold air advection, while historical March baselines near 68°F underscore the extraordinary heat dome's influence. Traders eye upcoming 00z model updates for resolution catalysts, as boundary-layer mixing will ultimately dictate the official DFW observation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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