Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, first elected in 2008 and serving as House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington alongside Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as Solid Republican, with no major developments since candidate filings closed in August 2026 altering the landscape. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Republican nominee a 96.2% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Scalise, or an unforeseen national political wave, though the district's structural advantages make such changes unlikely before the November 3 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
LA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
96%
Parti démocrate
5%
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$22,399 Vol.
96%
Parti démocrate
$29,823 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, first elected in 2008 and serving as House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington alongside Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as Solid Republican, with no major developments since candidate filings closed in August 2026 altering the landscape. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Republican nominee a 96.2% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Scalise, or an unforeseen national political wave, though the district's structural advantages make such changes unlikely before the November 3 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,223Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, first elected in 2008 and serving as House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington alongside Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as Solid Republican, with no major developments since candidate filings closed in August 2026 altering the landscape. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Republican nominee a 96.2% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Scalise, or an unforeseen national political wave, though the district's structural advantages make such changes unlikely before the November 3 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,223Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, first elected in 2008 and serving as House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington alongside Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as Solid Republican, with no major developments since candidate filings closed in August 2026 altering the landscape. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Republican nominee a 96.2% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could realistically shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal, significant health event affecting Scalise, or an unforeseen national political wave, though the district's structural advantages make such changes unlikely before the November 3 primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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