Persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly Gulf flow are maintaining typical late-August conditions across southeast Texas, with forecast models from NOAA and private sources converging on overnight lows of 78–82°F for Houston on August 22. High boundary-layer moisture and limited diurnal cooling under partly cloudy skies or isolated showers are the dominant factors keeping minimum temperatures near or slightly above the long-term average of 77°F. No cold front or drier air mass is expected to arrive in time to alter the outcome, though variable cloud cover and any convective activity could produce small differences in radiational cooling. This uncertainty across a narrow range explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities for the 74–85°F bins, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread in the latest model runs.