Persistent high pressure and a strong subtropical ridge over the southern U.S. continue to suppress cloud cover and rainfall across Southeast Texas, maximizing solar heating and supporting afternoon highs near or above normal. Official National Weather Service guidance as of mid-August shows Houston highs of 98–101°F through the coming days under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, with minimal model spread on timing or intensity. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 98–99°F and 100–101°F bins, reflecting both the current heat-dome pattern and climatological August averages near 95–97°F. Minor downward revisions could occur if isolated convection develops earlier than expected, but the dominant subsidence regime favors the upper-90s to low-100s range for August 22.