Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on August 23 will likely fall between 13–16°C, driven by a typical late-summer cooling pattern with overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Highs around 21–25°C support modest overnight drops, while any passing frontal system or increased cloud cover could limit cooling to the higher end near 15–16°C. Conversely, clearer conditions or a stronger high-pressure influence might push the low toward 13°C or below. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 44–46% across these thresholds, traders reflect genuine forecast uncertainty from model spread and limited lead time before resolution, typical for short-range temperature markets where small shifts in humidity or wind can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C.