Short-term ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models show the greatest uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing for September 3, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 68–73 °F bins. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of that range through enhanced longwave radiation loss, while increased cloud cover or a weak southerly flow would limit cooling and support the higher bins. Recent model runs indicate modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and dewpoint advection, with no strong frontal passage expected to alter the pattern dramatically before resolution. Historical early-September climatology places typical NYC minima near 62–66 °F, underscoring that current trader consensus reflects a warmer-than-average setup with genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à New York le 3 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à New York le 3 septembre ?
72-73°F 28%
70-71°F 27%
68-69°F 26%
74-75°F 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
63°F ou moins
3%
64-65 °F
3%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F ou plus
1%
72-73°F 28%
70-71°F 27%
68-69°F 26%
74-75°F 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 sept. 2026
63°F ou moins
$10 Vol.
3%
64-65 °F
$26 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$66 Vol.
13%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
26%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
27%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
15%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
1%
82°F ou plus
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models show the greatest uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing for September 3, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 68–73 °F bins. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of that range through enhanced longwave radiation loss, while increased cloud cover or a weak southerly flow would limit cooling and support the higher bins. Recent model runs indicate modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and dewpoint advection, with no strong frontal passage expected to alter the pattern dramatically before resolution. Historical early-September climatology places typical NYC minima near 62–66 °F, underscoring that current trader consensus reflects a warmer-than-average setup with genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$142Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models show the greatest uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing for September 3, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 68–73 °F bins. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of that range through enhanced longwave radiation loss, while increased cloud cover or a weak southerly flow would limit cooling and support the higher bins. Recent model runs indicate modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and dewpoint advection, with no strong frontal passage expected to alter the pattern dramatically before resolution. Historical early-September climatology places typical NYC minima near 62–66 °F, underscoring that current trader consensus reflects a warmer-than-average setup with genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$142Date de fin
3 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Short-term ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models show the greatest uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing for September 3, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 68–73 °F bins. Clearer skies and lighter winds would favor the lower end of that range through enhanced longwave radiation loss, while increased cloud cover or a weak southerly flow would limit cooling and support the higher bins. Recent model runs indicate modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and dewpoint advection, with no strong frontal passage expected to alter the pattern dramatically before resolution. Historical early-September climatology places typical NYC minima near 62–66 °F, underscoring that current trader consensus reflects a warmer-than-average setup with genuine sensitivity to the final 48-hour forecast updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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