**Cooler air advection behind a recent heat episode is driving the market's strong consensus around a 14–16°C minimum in Paris on August 6.** Météo-France guidance highlights a genuine cooldown for Thursday–Friday, with largely sunny conditions and morning readings near 17°C after warmer prior days. This aligns with climatological August overnight lows of 14–15°C while reflecting the immediate synoptic shift that has pulled ensemble guidance toward the lower end of seasonal norms. Forecast models show limited spread for the overnight minimum, supporting the 51.5% implied probability on 15°C and the combined ~90% chance on the 14–16°C band. No major model disagreements or unexpected developments have emerged in the last 24–48 hours to alter this positioning, though traders are monitoring any late adjustments to the timing of the coolest air. The market's tight clustering around these outcomes reflects high confidence in official guidance from Météo-France and supporting numerical weather prediction runs for the overnight period.