**Current NWS point forecasts and ensemble guidance for Central Park and nearby airports indicate a highest temperature most likely in the low-to-mid 80s°F on August 5, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading bins (82–83 °F at 41.5 % implied probability, 84–85 °F at 26.5 %).** A warm, humid airmass with southerly flow and partial cloud cover is expected to limit daytime heating, while scattered showers or thunderstorms (20–50 % chance in latest runs) could further cap the maximum. These conditions align with the August climatological average high of 83 °F at Central Park and explain why probabilities drop sharply above 86 °F and remain modest below 80 °F. Longer-range outlooks had called for above-average warmth through August, but short-term model consensus has trended slightly cooler for this date due to increased moisture and reduced insolation. Updated NWS discussions and morning model runs will be the next key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à New York le 5 août ?
La température la plus élevée à New York le 5 août ?
82-83°F 41%
84-85°F 27%
80-81°F 25%
78-79°F 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 août 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
41%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 41%
84-85°F 27%
80-81°F 25%
78-79°F 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 août 2026
71°F or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$265 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$233 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$337 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$485 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$347 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$3,623 Vol.
41%
84-85°F
$814 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$461 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$256 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS point forecasts and ensemble guidance for Central Park and nearby airports indicate a highest temperature most likely in the low-to-mid 80s°F on August 5, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading bins (82–83 °F at 41.5 % implied probability, 84–85 °F at 26.5 %).**
A warm, humid airmass with southerly flow and partial cloud cover is expected to limit daytime heating, while scattered showers or thunderstorms (20–50 % chance in latest runs) could further cap the maximum. These conditions align with the August climatological average high of 83 °F at Central Park and explain why probabilities drop sharply above 86 °F and remain modest below 80 °F.
Longer-range outlooks had called for above-average warmth through August, but short-term model consensus has trended slightly cooler for this date due to increased moisture and reduced insolation. Updated NWS discussions and morning model runs will be the next key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$7,265Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS point forecasts and ensemble guidance for Central Park and nearby airports indicate a highest temperature most likely in the low-to-mid 80s°F on August 5, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading bins (82–83 °F at 41.5 % implied probability, 84–85 °F at 26.5 %).**
A warm, humid airmass with southerly flow and partial cloud cover is expected to limit daytime heating, while scattered showers or thunderstorms (20–50 % chance in latest runs) could further cap the maximum. These conditions align with the August climatological average high of 83 °F at Central Park and explain why probabilities drop sharply above 86 °F and remain modest below 80 °F.
Longer-range outlooks had called for above-average warmth through August, but short-term model consensus has trended slightly cooler for this date due to increased moisture and reduced insolation. Updated NWS discussions and morning model runs will be the next key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,265Date de fin
5 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current NWS point forecasts and ensemble guidance for Central Park and nearby airports indicate a highest temperature most likely in the low-to-mid 80s°F on August 5, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading bins (82–83 °F at 41.5 % implied probability, 84–85 °F at 26.5 %).** A warm, humid airmass with southerly flow and partial cloud cover is expected to limit daytime heating, while scattered showers or thunderstorms (20–50 % chance in latest runs) could further cap the maximum. These conditions align with the August climatological average high of 83 °F at Central Park and explain why probabilities drop sharply above 86 °F and remain modest below 80 °F. Longer-range outlooks had called for above-average warmth through August, but short-term model consensus has trended slightly cooler for this date due to increased moisture and reduced insolation. Updated NWS discussions and morning model runs will be the next key catalysts for any shift in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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