The primary driver of current market-implied odds favoring 28–29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Manila on August 7 is persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, which is delivering widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila projects a daily range of 25–31°C with 80% rain probability on that date, consistent with seasonal monsoon patterns that historically moderate August daytime peaks below the 31–32°C climatological average. Recent model consensus and observed conditions through early August show similar suppression of highs amid high humidity and frequent precipitation, reducing the chance of brief clearing that would allow 30°C or higher. Traders are weighting these meteorological factors heavily, with only modest probability assigned to drier interludes that could push readings upward.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 7 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 7 août ?
29°C 44%
28°C 29%
30°C 20%
31°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 août 2026
24°C ou moins
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
29%
29°C
44%
30°C
20%
31°C
9%
32°C
5%
33°C
<1%
34°C ou plus
<1%
29°C 44%
28°C 29%
30°C 20%
31°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 août 2026
24°C ou moins
$42 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$37 Vol.
1%
26°C
$54 Vol.
3%
27°C
$55 Vol.
5%
28°C
$5 Vol.
29%
29°C
$28 Vol.
44%
30°C
$49 Vol.
20%
31°C
$24 Vol.
9%
32°C
$35 Vol.
5%
33°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
34°C ou plus
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The primary driver of current market-implied odds favoring 28–29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Manila on August 7 is persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, which is delivering widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila projects a daily range of 25–31°C with 80% rain probability on that date, consistent with seasonal monsoon patterns that historically moderate August daytime peaks below the 31–32°C climatological average. Recent model consensus and observed conditions through early August show similar suppression of highs amid high humidity and frequent precipitation, reducing the chance of brief clearing that would allow 30°C or higher. Traders are weighting these meteorological factors heavily, with only modest probability assigned to drier interludes that could push readings upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$393Date de fin
7 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The primary driver of current market-implied odds favoring 28–29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Manila on August 7 is persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, which is delivering widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila projects a daily range of 25–31°C with 80% rain probability on that date, consistent with seasonal monsoon patterns that historically moderate August daytime peaks below the 31–32°C climatological average. Recent model consensus and observed conditions through early August show similar suppression of highs amid high humidity and frequent precipitation, reducing the chance of brief clearing that would allow 30°C or higher. Traders are weighting these meteorological factors heavily, with only modest probability assigned to drier interludes that could push readings upward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$393Date de fin
7 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary driver of current market-implied odds favoring 28–29°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Manila on August 7 is persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, which is delivering widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms that limit solar heating. PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila projects a daily range of 25–31°C with 80% rain probability on that date, consistent with seasonal monsoon patterns that historically moderate August daytime peaks below the 31–32°C climatological average. Recent model consensus and observed conditions through early August show similar suppression of highs amid high humidity and frequent precipitation, reducing the chance of brief clearing that would allow 30°C or higher. Traders are weighting these meteorological factors heavily, with only modest probability assigned to drier interludes that could push readings upward.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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