Trader consensus shows tight clustering around 34–36°C for Beijing’s August 5 maximum, reflecting ensemble model spreads from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF. Primary drivers include the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors clear skies and strong solar heating, alongside boundary-layer moisture and light winds that limit nocturnal cooling. Recent 48-hour runs indicate modest upward revisions in daytime peaks due to reduced cloud cover, yet small timing differences in a weak frontal passage could cap readings at 34°C or push them to 37°C. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 31–33°C, underscoring how the current setup sits above baseline. Updated 12-km model output expected later today will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.