Persistent monsoon moisture and frequent thunderstorms are keeping overnight lows in Taipei elevated, with multiple models converging on minima of 25–27°C for August 22 amid high dew points near 25–26°C, extensive cloud cover, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. Recent Central Weather Administration outlooks and ensemble guidance show consistent warm, humid conditions with 70–80% rain probabilities, preventing the sharper drops seen in drier August nights. Traders price 26–27°C highest because these align with the most probable balance of urban heat retention and modest nocturnal mixing, while 25°C and 28°C remain viable if convective timing or wind shifts alter boundary-layer temperatures by even 1–2°C.