Traders assign the highest implied probability (44%) to a lowest temperature of 21°C or below in Taipei on August 21, with 22–26°C outcomes clustered around 30–34%, reflecting expectations of cooler-than-average overnight conditions driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and reduced radiational cooling under humid subtropical airflow. Central Weather Administration forecasts indicate mostly cloudy skies with thunderstorms through the period, limiting daytime heating to the mid-30s°C and supporting minimums near or below the long-term August average low of ~26°C. A distant tropical depression east of Guam adds minor steering uncertainty but is not projected to intensify local winds or precipitation enough to further suppress temperatures. Model consensus from regional agencies shows limited diurnal range due to high humidity and monsoon influences, keeping higher thresholds above 27°C at near-zero probability while underscoring the role of real-time observational updates in refining these market-implied odds.