**Market-implied odds heavily favor a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Warsaw on August 21, 2026, reflecting late-summer atmospheric conditions that limit overnight cooling.** Official forecasts and early observations show daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, followed by evening temperatures falling to around 19–20°C. Overnight, high humidity (often 80–100%), cloud cover, and light variable winds from the south to southeast suppress radiative cooling, keeping the minimum near 15–18°C. Sea-level pressure near 1009–1010 hPa supports this stable pattern. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and local stations points to the lowest readings occurring in the pre-dawn hours, with 16°C as the most probable single value. Historical August norms for Warsaw (typical lows 15–18°C) align with these outcomes, and no unusual cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative events have emerged to shift probabilities toward lower thresholds. Traders are thus pricing the market close to current ensemble guidance, with limited room for deviation unless new observational data revise the overnight trend.