Recent weather model consensus from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds as the main driver behind elevated market-implied odds for an 8°C-or-lower minimum on August 23. In late summer, Warsaw’s typical nocturnal temperature drop of 8–12°C from daytime highs near 22–24°C can push lows into the single digits when high pressure promotes clear conditions and limited mixing. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts show uncertainty around the exact minimum, with some runs indicating brief northerly flow that could enhance cooling, while others keep readings closer to the 12–14°C range. Traders appear to price in this variability and the chance of stronger-than-expected radiational cooling two days ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Varsovie le 23 août ?
La température la plus basse à Varsovie le 23 août ?
8°C or below 43%
12°C 20%
11°C 19%
13°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
8°C or below
43%
9°C
5%
10°C
14%
11°C
19%
12°C
20%
13°C
19%
14°C
19%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
1%
8°C or below 43%
12°C 20%
11°C 19%
13°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
43%
9°C
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
14%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
7%
16°C
$32 Vol.
14%
17°C
$5 Vol.
8%
18°C or higher
$27 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds as the main driver behind elevated market-implied odds for an 8°C-or-lower minimum on August 23. In late summer, Warsaw’s typical nocturnal temperature drop of 8–12°C from daytime highs near 22–24°C can push lows into the single digits when high pressure promotes clear conditions and limited mixing. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts show uncertainty around the exact minimum, with some runs indicating brief northerly flow that could enhance cooling, while others keep readings closer to the 12–14°C range. Traders appear to price in this variability and the chance of stronger-than-expected radiational cooling two days ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$64Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds as the main driver behind elevated market-implied odds for an 8°C-or-lower minimum on August 23. In late summer, Warsaw’s typical nocturnal temperature drop of 8–12°C from daytime highs near 22–24°C can push lows into the single digits when high pressure promotes clear conditions and limited mixing. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts show uncertainty around the exact minimum, with some runs indicating brief northerly flow that could enhance cooling, while others keep readings closer to the 12–14°C range. Traders appear to price in this variability and the chance of stronger-than-expected radiational cooling two days ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources like the Met Office and AccuWeather points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies with light winds as the main driver behind elevated market-implied odds for an 8°C-or-lower minimum on August 23. In late summer, Warsaw’s typical nocturnal temperature drop of 8–12°C from daytime highs near 22–24°C can push lows into the single digits when high pressure promotes clear conditions and limited mixing. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts show uncertainty around the exact minimum, with some runs indicating brief northerly flow that could enhance cooling, while others keep readings closer to the 12–14°C range. Traders appear to price in this variability and the chance of stronger-than-expected radiational cooling two days ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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