Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, reflecting subdued air travel volumes amid spring break demand pressured by ongoing Transportation Security Administration disruptions. Latest official TSA data shows April 2 throughput at 2.71 million, April 1 at 2.36 million, and prior days peaking at 2.76 million on March 29—all well below the 3 million threshold despite record projections of 171 million passengers over March-April. Staffing shortages from government shutdown pay delays have fueled long security lines, deterring flyers and capping effective capacity. This strong positioning could face challenge only from an unforeseen Easter weekend surge on Saturday April 4 ahead of Sunday's holiday, though historical precedents show peaks rarely exceed 2.9 million outside mega-events. Resolution follows TSA's daily release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNombre de passagers TSA 4 avril ?
Nombre de passagers TSA 4 avril ?
<3,0 M 99.2%
3,4M-3,6M <1%
3,0M-3,2M <1%
3,2M-3,4M <1%
NOUVEAU
$10,124 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$10,124 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
<3,0 M
99%
3,0M-3,2M
1%
3,2M-3,4M
1%
3,4M-3,6M
1%
3,6M-3,8M
<1%
>3,8M
<1%
<3,0 M 99.2%
3,4M-3,6M <1%
3,0M-3,2M <1%
3,2M-3,4M <1%
NOUVEAU
$10,124 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$10,124 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
<3,0 M
$3,124 Vol.
99%
3,0M-3,2M
$232 Vol.
1%
3,2M-3,4M
$1,425 Vol.
1%
3,4M-3,6M
$1,795 Vol.
1%
3,6M-3,8M
$1,786 Vol.
<1%
>3,8M
$1,762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, reflecting subdued air travel volumes amid spring break demand pressured by ongoing Transportation Security Administration disruptions. Latest official TSA data shows April 2 throughput at 2.71 million, April 1 at 2.36 million, and prior days peaking at 2.76 million on March 29—all well below the 3 million threshold despite record projections of 171 million passengers over March-April. Staffing shortages from government shutdown pay delays have fueled long security lines, deterring flyers and capping effective capacity. This strong positioning could face challenge only from an unforeseen Easter weekend surge on Saturday April 4 ahead of Sunday's holiday, though historical precedents show peaks rarely exceed 2.9 million outside mega-events. Resolution follows TSA's daily release.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
Volume
$10,124Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, reflecting subdued air travel volumes amid spring break demand pressured by ongoing Transportation Security Administration disruptions. Latest official TSA data shows April 2 throughput at 2.71 million, April 1 at 2.36 million, and prior days peaking at 2.76 million on March 29—all well below the 3 million threshold despite record projections of 171 million passengers over March-April. Staffing shortages from government shutdown pay delays have fueled long security lines, deterring flyers and capping effective capacity. This strong positioning could face challenge only from an unforeseen Easter weekend surge on Saturday April 4 ahead of Sunday's holiday, though historical precedents show peaks rarely exceed 2.9 million outside mega-events. Resolution follows TSA's daily release.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$10,124Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, reflecting subdued air travel volumes amid spring break demand pressured by ongoing Transportation Security Administration disruptions. Latest official TSA data shows April 2 throughput at 2.71 million, April 1 at 2.36 million, and prior days peaking at 2.76 million on March 29—all well below the 3 million threshold despite record projections of 171 million passengers over March-April. Staffing shortages from government shutdown pay delays have fueled long security lines, deterring flyers and capping effective capacity. This strong positioning could face challenge only from an unforeseen Easter weekend surge on Saturday April 4 ahead of Sunday's holiday, though historical precedents show peaks rarely exceed 2.9 million outside mega-events. Resolution follows TSA's daily release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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