Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in the 2026 Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on Polymarket for the Democratic nominee. The district, encompassing western Philadelphia suburbs in Montgomery County and parts of Berks County, carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in historical voting patterns and partisan voting indices. Dean's established record since 2019, committee roles, and primary victory on May 19 have reinforced her frontrunner status against Republican Aurora Stuski, who advanced from a low-profile primary. Limited opposition funding and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics further solidify the implied probability. Potential challenges remain narrow, including late-breaking personal or legal developments for Dean or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
PA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$12,459 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in the 2026 Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on Polymarket for the Democratic nominee. The district, encompassing western Philadelphia suburbs in Montgomery County and parts of Berks County, carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in historical voting patterns and partisan voting indices. Dean's established record since 2019, committee roles, and primary victory on May 19 have reinforced her frontrunner status against Republican Aurora Stuski, who advanced from a low-profile primary. Limited opposition funding and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics further solidify the implied probability. Potential challenges remain narrow, including late-breaking personal or legal developments for Dean or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,199Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in the 2026 Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on Polymarket for the Democratic nominee. The district, encompassing western Philadelphia suburbs in Montgomery County and parts of Berks County, carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in historical voting patterns and partisan voting indices. Dean's established record since 2019, committee roles, and primary victory on May 19 have reinforced her frontrunner status against Republican Aurora Stuski, who advanced from a low-profile primary. Limited opposition funding and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics further solidify the implied probability. Potential challenges remain narrow, including late-breaking personal or legal developments for Dean or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,199Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in the 2026 Pennsylvania 4th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus on Polymarket for the Democratic nominee. The district, encompassing western Philadelphia suburbs in Montgomery County and parts of Berks County, carries a consistent Democratic lean reflected in historical voting patterns and partisan voting indices. Dean's established record since 2019, committee roles, and primary victory on May 19 have reinforced her frontrunner status against Republican Aurora Stuski, who advanced from a low-profile primary. Limited opposition funding and the absence of major recent shifts in polling or campaign dynamics further solidify the implied probability. Potential challenges remain narrow, including late-breaking personal or legal developments for Dean or an unusually strong Republican national environment capable of overcoming the district's structural advantages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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