With over 90% of ballot boxes counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, Keiko Fujimori holds a firm lead in first place, thrusting Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino into a nail-biter for second and advancement to the June 7 runoff. Traders price López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) at 58% implied probability for third place, buoyed by his early urban vote dominance, while Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú)—a congressman drawing leftist and rural support—sits at 39%, reflecting his late surge from southern and agrarian precincts per latest ONPE tallies. Remaining urban-rural counts and potential recounts by the National Jury of Elections could shift the razor-thin margin, underscoring the fragmented 35-candidate field's volatility amid voter fatigue from political instability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle péruvienne : 3e place
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle péruvienne : 3e place
Rafael López Aliaga 55.5%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 40.5%
Jorge Nieto <1%
Ricardo Belmont <1%
$557,765 Vol.
$557,765 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
55%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
41%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Keiko Fujimori
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 55.5%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 40.5%
Jorge Nieto <1%
Ricardo Belmont <1%
$557,765 Vol.
$557,765 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
55%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
41%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Keiko Fujimori
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 90% of ballot boxes counted in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, Keiko Fujimori holds a firm lead in first place, thrusting Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino into a nail-biter for second and advancement to the June 7 runoff. Traders price López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) at 58% implied probability for third place, buoyed by his early urban vote dominance, while Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú)—a congressman drawing leftist and rural support—sits at 39%, reflecting his late surge from southern and agrarian precincts per latest ONPE tallies. Remaining urban-rural counts and potential recounts by the National Jury of Elections could shift the razor-thin margin, underscoring the fragmented 35-candidate field's volatility amid voter fatigue from political instability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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