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icon for Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?
Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

icon for Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?
Politique·Trump

Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ?

janv. 1, 2027

janv. 1, 2027

$1,401,456 Vol.

31 déc. 2026
Polymarket

$1,401,456 Vol.

Polymarket

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

29%

Howard Lutnick

$94,443 Vol.

25%

Susie Wiles

$55,835 Vol.

25%

Pete Hegseth

$126,759 Vol.

24%

Kash Patel

$304,202 Vol.

22%

David Sacks

$9,182 Vol.

22%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$90,902 Vol.

21%

Lee Zeldin

$31,760 Vol.

21%

Kristi Noem

$97,815 Vol.

35%

Stephen Miller

$3,769 Vol.

14%

John Ratcliffe

$554 Vol.

14%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,632 Vol.

29%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

17%

Tom Homan

$243 Vol.

20%

Scott Bessent

$7,892 Vol.

9%

Marco Rubio

$19,710 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover has characterized the second Trump administration, with record departures among both Senate-confirmed and non-Senate-confirmed appointees in its first 18 months. Cabinet-level exits include Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, both removed by the president in early 2026 amid implementation disputes and scrutiny over agency actions, plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s departure for personal reasons. Broader churn exceeds prior administrations, concentrated in departments handling immigration enforcement and regulatory policy. Traders price elevated risk for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and FBI Director Kash Patel due to ongoing institutional pressures and policy execution demands ahead of 2026 midterms, while replacements face Senate confirmation timelines that could trigger additional shifts before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,401,456
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover has characterized the second Trump administration, with record departures among both Senate-confirmed and non-Senate-confirmed appointees in its first 18 months. Cabinet-level exits include Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, both removed by the president in early 2026 amid implementation disputes and scrutiny over agency actions, plus Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s departure for personal reasons. Broader churn exceeds prior administrations, concentrated in departments handling immigration enforcement and regulatory policy. Traders price elevated risk for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and FBI Director Kash Patel due to ongoing institutional pressures and policy execution demands ahead of 2026 midterms, while replacements face Senate confirmation timelines that could trigger additional shifts before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,401,456
Date de fin
1 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Trump démissionnera-t-il avant 2027 ?

Trump démissionnera-t-il avant 2027 ?

3%
Oui
icon for Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%
Oui
icon for Trump démissionnera-t-il d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Trump démissionnera-t-il d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

3%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 21 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Karoline Leavitt » à 100%, suivi de « Tulsi Gabbard » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » a généré $1.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 21 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est « Karoline Leavitt » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Tulsi Gabbard » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.