Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally. Following the April 2026 offensive that recaptured Kidal and struck targets around Gao, the army and its partners launched sustained counteroperations, including airstrikes, logistics interdictions, and the July retaking of Anéfis after rebel ambushes near Tabrichat. Recent FAMa statements highlight continued surveillance, base neutralization, and territorial stabilization efforts through September 2026. These developments, combined with the junta’s focus on defending major northern hubs and the rebels’ pattern of limited gains rather than sustained urban seizures, underpin trader consensus that a full rebel capture of Gao remains unlikely before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes rebelles s'empareront-ils de Gao d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Les rebelles s'empareront-ils de Gao d'ici le 31 décembre ?
Oui
17% chance
$12,996 Vol.
$12,996 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
17% chance
$12,996 Vol.
$12,996 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally. Following the April 2026 offensive that recaptured Kidal and struck targets around Gao, the army and its partners launched sustained counteroperations, including airstrikes, logistics interdictions, and the July retaking of Anéfis after rebel ambushes near Tabrichat. Recent FAMa statements highlight continued surveillance, base neutralization, and territorial stabilization efforts through September 2026. These developments, combined with the junta’s focus on defending major northern hubs and the rebels’ pattern of limited gains rather than sustained urban seizures, underpin trader consensus that a full rebel capture of Gao remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Marché ouvert : Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,996Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally. Following the April 2026 offensive that recaptured Kidal and struck targets around Gao, the army and its partners launched sustained counteroperations, including airstrikes, logistics interdictions, and the July retaking of Anéfis after rebel ambushes near Tabrichat. Recent FAMa statements highlight continued surveillance, base neutralization, and territorial stabilization efforts through September 2026. These developments, combined with the junta’s focus on defending major northern hubs and the rebels’ pattern of limited gains rather than sustained urban seizures, underpin trader consensus that a full rebel capture of Gao remains unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$12,996Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Malian government forces, supported by Russian Africa Corps units, have retained control of Gao amid ongoing clashes with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally. Following the April 2026 offensive that recaptured Kidal and struck targets around Gao, the army and its partners launched sustained counteroperations, including airstrikes, logistics interdictions, and the July retaking of Anéfis after rebel ambushes near Tabrichat. Recent FAMa statements highlight continued surveillance, base neutralization, and territorial stabilization efforts through September 2026. These developments, combined with the junta’s focus on defending major northern hubs and the rebels’ pattern of limited gains rather than sustained urban seizures, underpin trader consensus that a full rebel capture of Gao remains unlikely before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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