Republican control of the House through the end of 2026 creates the primary structural barrier to impeachment, as any House vote requires majority support that current partisan margins and historical patterns make unlikely without significant Republican defections. The 2026 midterm elections occur too late to alter House composition before year-end, limiting opportunities for shifts in majority status. Trader consensus reflected in the 98.3% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of recent legislative actions, widespread bipartisan calls for articles of impeachment, or major developments capable of eroding party-line resistance. Realistic scenarios that could still move probabilities include emergence of new evidence triggering cross-aisle agreement, unexpected special-election losses altering the narrowest margins, or late-session procedural maneuvers, though such paths remain constrained by institutional and calendar realities.