The high implied probability on "No" reflects ongoing fiscal trends under the Trump administration, where enacted policies have expanded rather than narrowed the federal deficit. The 2025 reconciliation legislation, including tax extensions and new provisions, added trillions to projected deficits over the decade, while tariff revenues fell short after Supreme Court rulings limited parts of the regime. Congressional Budget Office estimates place the FY 2026 shortfall near or above $2 trillion, exceeding prior-year levels amid rising mandatory spending, interest costs, and outlays. Administration officials have announced plans for fiscal consolidation and a 3% of GDP target, yet budget baselines show persistent gaps above 5% through 2029, with limited legislative action to date on major entitlement reforms or spending restraint sufficient to reverse the trajectory before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The high implied probability on "No" reflects ongoing fiscal trends under the Trump administration, where enacted policies have expanded rather than narrowed the federal deficit. The 2025 reconciliation legislation, including tax extensions and new provisions, added trillions to projected deficits over the decade, while tariff revenues fell short after Supreme Court rulings limited parts of the regime. Congressional Budget Office estimates place the FY 2026 shortfall near or above $2 trillion, exceeding prior-year levels amid rising mandatory spending, interest costs, and outlays. Administration officials have announced plans for fiscal consolidation and a 3% of GDP target, yet budget baselines show persistent gaps above 5% through 2029, with limited legislative action to date on major entitlement reforms or spending restraint sufficient to reverse the trajectory before 2027.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$3,033Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The high implied probability on "No" reflects ongoing fiscal trends under the Trump administration, where enacted policies have expanded rather than narrowed the federal deficit. The 2025 reconciliation legislation, including tax extensions and new provisions, added trillions to projected deficits over the decade, while tariff revenues fell short after Supreme Court rulings limited parts of the regime. Congressional Budget Office estimates place the FY 2026 shortfall near or above $2 trillion, exceeding prior-year levels amid rising mandatory spending, interest costs, and outlays. Administration officials have announced plans for fiscal consolidation and a 3% of GDP target, yet budget baselines show persistent gaps above 5% through 2029, with limited legislative action to date on major entitlement reforms or spending restraint sufficient to reverse the trajectory before 2027.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$3,033Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability on "No" reflects ongoing fiscal trends under the Trump administration, where enacted policies have expanded rather than narrowed the federal deficit. The 2025 reconciliation legislation, including tax extensions and new provisions, added trillions to projected deficits over the decade, while tariff revenues fell short after Supreme Court rulings limited parts of the regime. Congressional Budget Office estimates place the FY 2026 shortfall near or above $2 trillion, exceeding prior-year levels amid rising mandatory spending, interest costs, and outlays. Administration officials have announced plans for fiscal consolidation and a 3% of GDP target, yet budget baselines show persistent gaps above 5% through 2029, with limited legislative action to date on major entitlement reforms or spending restraint sufficient to reverse the trajectory before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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