Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have run near $55-60 billion, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion through April 2026, following a full-year 2025 figure of $901.5 billion. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 have lifted the effective rate and curbed some bilateral flows, particularly with China, yet the overall deficit has shown limited contraction because imports of capital goods tied to domestic investment and AI spending remain strong while the dollar and U.S. savings-investment gap continue to support net inflows. CBO projections anticipate gradual narrowing in 2026 as import growth slows relative to exports, but volatility from energy prices, supply-chain shifts, and growth differentials leaves the 800-900 billion range as the modal outcome among traders. Further data releases and any additional policy adjustments through year-end remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities around narrower or wider bands.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
5%
500–600 milliards
5%
600–700 milliards
10%
700–800 milliards
10%
800–900 milliards
40%
900 Md – 1 Bn
18%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 T+
5%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,813 Vol.
5%
500–600 milliards
$413 Vol.
5%
600–700 milliards
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800 milliards
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 milliards
$1,008 Vol.
40%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$984 Vol.
18%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1 T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have run near $55-60 billion, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion through April 2026, following a full-year 2025 figure of $901.5 billion. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 have lifted the effective rate and curbed some bilateral flows, particularly with China, yet the overall deficit has shown limited contraction because imports of capital goods tied to domestic investment and AI spending remain strong while the dollar and U.S. savings-investment gap continue to support net inflows. CBO projections anticipate gradual narrowing in 2026 as import growth slows relative to exports, but volatility from energy prices, supply-chain shifts, and growth differentials leaves the 800-900 billion range as the modal outcome among traders. Further data releases and any additional policy adjustments through year-end remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities around narrower or wider bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,261Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have run near $55-60 billion, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion through April 2026, following a full-year 2025 figure of $901.5 billion. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 have lifted the effective rate and curbed some bilateral flows, particularly with China, yet the overall deficit has shown limited contraction because imports of capital goods tied to domestic investment and AI spending remain strong while the dollar and U.S. savings-investment gap continue to support net inflows. CBO projections anticipate gradual narrowing in 2026 as import growth slows relative to exports, but volatility from energy prices, supply-chain shifts, and growth differentials leaves the 800-900 billion range as the modal outcome among traders. Further data releases and any additional policy adjustments through year-end remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities around narrower or wider bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,261Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have run near $55-60 billion, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion through April 2026, following a full-year 2025 figure of $901.5 billion. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 have lifted the effective rate and curbed some bilateral flows, particularly with China, yet the overall deficit has shown limited contraction because imports of capital goods tied to domestic investment and AI spending remain strong while the dollar and U.S. savings-investment gap continue to support net inflows. CBO projections anticipate gradual narrowing in 2026 as import growth slows relative to exports, but volatility from energy prices, supply-chain shifts, and growth differentials leaves the 800-900 billion range as the modal outcome among traders. Further data releases and any additional policy adjustments through year-end remain the primary variables that could consolidate probabilities around narrower or wider bands.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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