Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have shown volatility, widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026 after narrowing to $55.9 billion in April, amid surges in capital goods and consumer imports alongside softer exports. Trader sentiment for the full-year 2026 deficit centers on the 700–900 billion range, reflecting the 2025 annual shortfall of $901.5 billion and CBO projections of a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 are curbing import growth while boosting customs revenues, with exports supported by a weaker dollar over time; however, persistent policy uncertainty around additional measures and annual reviews with key partners introduces variability. Stronger domestic demand could widen the gap, while subdued global growth or further restrictions would support narrower outcomes around the market-implied consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$23,912 Vol.
$23,912 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
4%
500–600 milliards
5%
600–700 milliards
9%
700–800 milliards
31%
800–900 milliards
47%
900 Md – 1 Bn
19%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 T+
5%
$23,912 Vol.
$23,912 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,843 Vol.
4%
500–600 milliards
$443 Vol.
5%
600–700 milliards
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800 milliards
$669 Vol.
31%
800–900 milliards
$1,509 Vol.
47%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$1,350 Vol.
19%
1T–1,1T
$1,452 Vol.
5%
1,1 T+
$1,103 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have shown volatility, widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026 after narrowing to $55.9 billion in April, amid surges in capital goods and consumer imports alongside softer exports. Trader sentiment for the full-year 2026 deficit centers on the 700–900 billion range, reflecting the 2025 annual shortfall of $901.5 billion and CBO projections of a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 are curbing import growth while boosting customs revenues, with exports supported by a weaker dollar over time; however, persistent policy uncertainty around additional measures and annual reviews with key partners introduces variability. Stronger domestic demand could widen the gap, while subdued global growth or further restrictions would support narrower outcomes around the market-implied consensus.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$23,912Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have shown volatility, widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026 after narrowing to $55.9 billion in April, amid surges in capital goods and consumer imports alongside softer exports. Trader sentiment for the full-year 2026 deficit centers on the 700–900 billion range, reflecting the 2025 annual shortfall of $901.5 billion and CBO projections of a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 are curbing import growth while boosting customs revenues, with exports supported by a weaker dollar over time; however, persistent policy uncertainty around additional measures and annual reviews with key partners introduces variability. Stronger domestic demand could widen the gap, while subdued global growth or further restrictions would support narrower outcomes around the market-implied consensus.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$23,912Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services deficits have shown volatility, widening to $77.6 billion in May 2026 after narrowing to $55.9 billion in April, amid surges in capital goods and consumer imports alongside softer exports. Trader sentiment for the full-year 2026 deficit centers on the 700–900 billion range, reflecting the 2025 annual shortfall of $901.5 billion and CBO projections of a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Elevated tariffs implemented since early 2025 are curbing import growth while boosting customs revenues, with exports supported by a weaker dollar over time; however, persistent policy uncertainty around additional measures and annual reviews with key partners introduces variability. Stronger domestic demand could widen the gap, while subdued global growth or further restrictions would support narrower outcomes around the market-implied consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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