**Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar annual U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, reflecting the limited impact of ongoing tariff policies amid broader macroeconomic drivers.** Tariffs imposed since 2025 have reduced the bilateral deficit with China by about one-third and shifted sourcing toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, yet the overall gap has remained near 900 billion dollars as import substitution and capital-goods demand (including AI-related equipment) offset much of the effect. Early 2026 monthly readings around 55–60 billion dollars suggest possible moderation, but services-surplus growth, energy-price volatility, and persistent U.S. investment-saving imbalances continue to anchor expectations near prior-year levels. Markets price the 800–900 billion band highest because these structural factors have historically outweighed targeted trade measures in determining the annual total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
5%
500–600 milliards
3%
600–700 milliards
10%
700–800 milliards
10%
800–900 milliards
34%
900 Md – 1 Bn
18%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 T+
4%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,813 Vol.
5%
500–600 milliards
$413 Vol.
3%
600–700 milliards
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800 milliards
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 milliards
$1,008 Vol.
34%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$984 Vol.
18%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1 T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar annual U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, reflecting the limited impact of ongoing tariff policies amid broader macroeconomic drivers.**
Tariffs imposed since 2025 have reduced the bilateral deficit with China by about one-third and shifted sourcing toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, yet the overall gap has remained near 900 billion dollars as import substitution and capital-goods demand (including AI-related equipment) offset much of the effect. Early 2026 monthly readings around 55–60 billion dollars suggest possible moderation, but services-surplus growth, energy-price volatility, and persistent U.S. investment-saving imbalances continue to anchor expectations near prior-year levels. Markets price the 800–900 billion band highest because these structural factors have historically outweighed targeted trade measures in determining the annual total.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,261Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar annual U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, reflecting the limited impact of ongoing tariff policies amid broader macroeconomic drivers.**
Tariffs imposed since 2025 have reduced the bilateral deficit with China by about one-third and shifted sourcing toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, yet the overall gap has remained near 900 billion dollars as import substitution and capital-goods demand (including AI-related equipment) offset much of the effect. Early 2026 monthly readings around 55–60 billion dollars suggest possible moderation, but services-surplus growth, energy-price volatility, and persistent U.S. investment-saving imbalances continue to anchor expectations near prior-year levels. Markets price the 800–900 billion band highest because these structural factors have historically outweighed targeted trade measures in determining the annual total.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,261Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on an 800–900 billion dollar annual U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, reflecting the limited impact of ongoing tariff policies amid broader macroeconomic drivers.** Tariffs imposed since 2025 have reduced the bilateral deficit with China by about one-third and shifted sourcing toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, yet the overall gap has remained near 900 billion dollars as import substitution and capital-goods demand (including AI-related equipment) offset much of the effect. Early 2026 monthly readings around 55–60 billion dollars suggest possible moderation, but services-surplus growth, energy-price volatility, and persistent U.S. investment-saving imbalances continue to anchor expectations near prior-year levels. Markets price the 800–900 billion band highest because these structural factors have historically outweighed targeted trade measures in determining the annual total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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