Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
27 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
3%
500–600 milliards
5%
600–700 milliards
10%
700–800 milliards
26%
800–900 milliards
38%
900 Md – 1 Bn
13%
1T–1,1T
4%
1,1 T+
4%
$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
27 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600 milliards
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700 milliards
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800 milliards
$720 Vol.
26%
800–900 milliards
$1,845 Vol.
38%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1T–1,1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1,1 T+
$1,215 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,712Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,712Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a deficit of $88.6 billion in July 2026, up from a revised $71.2 billion in June, with year-to-date narrowing of nearly 30 percent versus the comparable 2025 period amid tariff adjustments and unwinding of prior import front-loading. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion dollar range for the full-year 2026 outcome reflects these dynamics alongside persistent AI-related capital goods imports that continue to support broader import growth, offset partially by energy and commodity export strength. A stronger dollar and evolving Section 301 and reciprocal tariff frameworks add further pressure on the import side, while upcoming August data and FOMC signals on monetary policy could influence near-term exchange rates and demand. The closely matched probabilities between the 700–800 billion and 800–900 billion buckets highlight uncertainty over whether tariff moderation and export gains will sustain the recent narrowing trend through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes