Recent monthly goods-and-services deficits near $56 billion, combined with the $901.5 billion 2025 annual total, anchor trader expectations around an 800–900 billion outcome for 2026. Tariff increases imposed in 2025 have slowed import growth more than exports while prompting supply-chain shifts away from China, supporting modest narrowing consistent with CBO projections of the deficit falling as a share of GDP. Faster projected export growth, dollar depreciation, and continued capital-goods demand create the main variables that could push the figure into the 900 billion–1 trillion range or hold it below 800 billion. With no major new policy deadlines until later in the year, traders treat the current distribution as reflecting uncertainty over the net fiscal and trade-policy effects still unfolding.