The primary driver behind the 85.5% implied probability for a $70-80 billion U.S. goods and services trade deficit in June 2026 is the May outcome of $77.6 billion, which widened sharply from April's revised $54.6 billion due to a $23.6 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion alongside a modest $0.6 billion rise in the services surplus to $28.9 billion. Advance Census data showing the June goods deficit narrowing to $101.5 billion from May's $105.9 billion supports market-implied odds that a comparable services surplus would keep the full June figure within the 70-80 billion band. Traders are positioning ahead of the August 4 BEA release, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting uncertainty around import/export volatility and potential revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour70-80B 86%
60-70B 14%
50-60B 2.4%
80-90B 1.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
2%
60-70B
14%
70-80B
86%
80-90B
1%
90-100B
1%
100B+
1%
70-80B 86%
60-70B 14%
50-60B 2.4%
80-90B 1.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
<50B
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-60B
$303 Vol.
2%
60-70B
$464 Vol.
14%
70-80B
$6,733 Vol.
86%
80-90B
$256 Vol.
1%
90-100B
$256 Vol.
1%
100B+
$367 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The primary driver behind the 85.5% implied probability for a $70-80 billion U.S. goods and services trade deficit in June 2026 is the May outcome of $77.6 billion, which widened sharply from April's revised $54.6 billion due to a $23.6 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion alongside a modest $0.6 billion rise in the services surplus to $28.9 billion. Advance Census data showing the June goods deficit narrowing to $101.5 billion from May's $105.9 billion supports market-implied odds that a comparable services surplus would keep the full June figure within the 70-80 billion band. Traders are positioning ahead of the August 4 BEA release, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting uncertainty around import/export volatility and potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$8,775Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The primary driver behind the 85.5% implied probability for a $70-80 billion U.S. goods and services trade deficit in June 2026 is the May outcome of $77.6 billion, which widened sharply from April's revised $54.6 billion due to a $23.6 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion alongside a modest $0.6 billion rise in the services surplus to $28.9 billion. Advance Census data showing the June goods deficit narrowing to $101.5 billion from May's $105.9 billion supports market-implied odds that a comparable services surplus would keep the full June figure within the 70-80 billion band. Traders are positioning ahead of the August 4 BEA release, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting uncertainty around import/export volatility and potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$8,775Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary driver behind the 85.5% implied probability for a $70-80 billion U.S. goods and services trade deficit in June 2026 is the May outcome of $77.6 billion, which widened sharply from April's revised $54.6 billion due to a $23.6 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion alongside a modest $0.6 billion rise in the services surplus to $28.9 billion. Advance Census data showing the June goods deficit narrowing to $101.5 billion from May's $105.9 billion supports market-implied odds that a comparable services surplus would keep the full June figure within the 70-80 billion band. Traders are positioning ahead of the August 4 BEA release, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting uncertainty around import/export volatility and potential revisions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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