The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House Election Winner market, driven primarily by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the northern California district to a solid Democratic lean of roughly D+7. The seat became vacant after the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, triggering special primary and general elections in 2026 that have aligned with the updated partisan balance and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats in the redrawn boundaries. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as safely Democratic. Even at these elevated levels, outcomes could shift due to unusually low Democratic turnout, a strong Republican nominee capitalizing on local issues, or late national political developments altering voter priorities before the November general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$23,637 वॉल्यूम
$23,637 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
5%
$23,637 वॉल्यूम
$23,637 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$15,721 वॉल्यूम
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$7,916 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House Election Winner market, driven primarily by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the northern California district to a solid Democratic lean of roughly D+7. The seat became vacant after the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, triggering special primary and general elections in 2026 that have aligned with the updated partisan balance and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats in the redrawn boundaries. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as safely Democratic. Even at these elevated levels, outcomes could shift due to unusually low Democratic turnout, a strong Republican nominee capitalizing on local issues, or late national political developments altering voter priorities before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$23,637समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House Election Winner market, driven primarily by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the northern California district to a solid Democratic lean of roughly D+7. The seat became vacant after the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, triggering special primary and general elections in 2026 that have aligned with the updated partisan balance and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats in the redrawn boundaries. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as safely Democratic. Even at these elevated levels, outcomes could shift due to unusually low Democratic turnout, a strong Republican nominee capitalizing on local issues, or late national political developments altering voter priorities before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$23,637समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the CA-01 House Election Winner market, driven primarily by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted the northern California district to a solid Democratic lean of roughly D+7. The seat became vacant after the death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, triggering special primary and general elections in 2026 that have aligned with the updated partisan balance and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats in the redrawn boundaries. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, consistent with nonpartisan ratings classifying the contest as safely Democratic. Even at these elevated levels, outcomes could shift due to unusually low Democratic turnout, a strong Republican nominee capitalizing on local issues, or late national political developments altering voter priorities before the November general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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