Democratic incumbent Ami Bera holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. Redistricting shifted the district's composition to favor Democrats, enabling Bera to run in a seat with stronger party registration and voting patterns than the prior configuration. Bera advanced easily through the June 2026 primary, while the Republican nominee, Robb Tucker, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a clear registration and historical performance edge. This setup aligns with the current trader consensus reflecting the seat's partisan lean and Bera's incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major late-breaking developments such as scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or significant national political shifts that boost Republican performance in the final months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -03 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$34,138 वॉल्यूम
$34,138 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
3%
$34,138 वॉल्यूम
$34,138 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$19,551 वॉल्यूम
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$14,587 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Ami Bera holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. Redistricting shifted the district's composition to favor Democrats, enabling Bera to run in a seat with stronger party registration and voting patterns than the prior configuration. Bera advanced easily through the June 2026 primary, while the Republican nominee, Robb Tucker, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a clear registration and historical performance edge. This setup aligns with the current trader consensus reflecting the seat's partisan lean and Bera's incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major late-breaking developments such as scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or significant national political shifts that boost Republican performance in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$34,138समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Ami Bera holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. Redistricting shifted the district's composition to favor Democrats, enabling Bera to run in a seat with stronger party registration and voting patterns than the prior configuration. Bera advanced easily through the June 2026 primary, while the Republican nominee, Robb Tucker, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a clear registration and historical performance edge. This setup aligns with the current trader consensus reflecting the seat's partisan lean and Bera's incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major late-breaking developments such as scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or significant national political shifts that boost Republican performance in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$34,138समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Ami Bera holds a commanding position in California's 3rd congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 93.5% implied probability. Redistricting shifted the district's composition to favor Democrats, enabling Bera to run in a seat with stronger party registration and voting patterns than the prior configuration. Bera advanced easily through the June 2026 primary, while the Republican nominee, Robb Tucker, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a clear registration and historical performance edge. This setup aligns with the current trader consensus reflecting the seat's partisan lean and Bera's incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift odds include major late-breaking developments such as scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, unusually low Democratic turnout, or significant national political shifts that boost Republican performance in the final months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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