The 14th Congressional District’s strong Democratic voter registration edge—roughly 50% Democratic versus 17% Republican—combined with its East Bay location anchors the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the special election. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation triggered the June 16 primary and August 18 general, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, while Republican candidates remain limited in both number and resources. Historical results in the district show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points, limiting any realistic path for a Republican upset absent an extraordinary turnout reversal or late structural shift. The implied probability aligns with the seat’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$29,329 वॉल्यूम
$29,329 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
5%
$29,329 वॉल्यूम
$29,329 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$10,958 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$18,371 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 14th Congressional District’s strong Democratic voter registration edge—roughly 50% Democratic versus 17% Republican—combined with its East Bay location anchors the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the special election. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation triggered the June 16 primary and August 18 general, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, while Republican candidates remain limited in both number and resources. Historical results in the district show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points, limiting any realistic path for a Republican upset absent an extraordinary turnout reversal or late structural shift. The implied probability aligns with the seat’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$29,329समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 14th Congressional District’s strong Democratic voter registration edge—roughly 50% Democratic versus 17% Republican—combined with its East Bay location anchors the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the special election. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation triggered the June 16 primary and August 18 general, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, while Republican candidates remain limited in both number and resources. Historical results in the district show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points, limiting any realistic path for a Republican upset absent an extraordinary turnout reversal or late structural shift. The implied probability aligns with the seat’s established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$29,329समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 14th Congressional District’s strong Democratic voter registration edge—roughly 50% Democratic versus 17% Republican—combined with its East Bay location anchors the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the special election. Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation triggered the June 16 primary and August 18 general, drawing multiple Democratic contenders including state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, while Republican candidates remain limited in both number and resources. Historical results in the district show consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points, limiting any realistic path for a Republican upset absent an extraordinary turnout reversal or late structural shift. The implied probability aligns with the seat’s established partisan baseline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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