Governor Gavin Newsom's April 14 proclamation set a special primary for June 16 and general election on August 18 to fill the CA-14 vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 92%. The East Bay district's D+19 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration, and Swalwell's prior 69% win reflect structural advantages unlikely to shift in this low-turnout special contest under California's top-two primary system. GOP odds at 7% persist due to historical barriers, though a fragmented Democratic field allowing a Republican to advance from the primary or a frontrunner scandal could challenge the outcome before filing deadline on April 23.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$24,894 वॉल्यूम
$24,894 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
92%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
7%
$24,894 वॉल्यूम
$24,894 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$7,851 वॉल्यूम
92%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$17,044 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Governor Gavin Newsom's April 14 proclamation set a special primary for June 16 and general election on August 18 to fill the CA-14 vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 92%. The East Bay district's D+19 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration, and Swalwell's prior 69% win reflect structural advantages unlikely to shift in this low-turnout special contest under California's top-two primary system. GOP odds at 7% persist due to historical barriers, though a fragmented Democratic field allowing a Republican to advance from the primary or a frontrunner scandal could challenge the outcome before filing deadline on April 23.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$24,894समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Governor Gavin Newsom's April 14 proclamation set a special primary for June 16 and general election on August 18 to fill the CA-14 vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 92%. The East Bay district's D+19 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration, and Swalwell's prior 69% win reflect structural advantages unlikely to shift in this low-turnout special contest under California's top-two primary system. GOP odds at 7% persist due to historical barriers, though a fragmented Democratic field allowing a Republican to advance from the primary or a frontrunner scandal could challenge the outcome before filing deadline on April 23.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$24,894समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Governor Gavin Newsom's April 14 proclamation set a special primary for June 16 and general election on August 18 to fill the CA-14 vacancy after Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations, reinforcing trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 92%. The East Bay district's D+19 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration, and Swalwell's prior 69% win reflect structural advantages unlikely to shift in this low-turnout special contest under California's top-two primary system. GOP odds at 7% persist due to historical barriers, though a fragmented Democratic field allowing a Republican to advance from the primary or a frontrunner scandal could challenge the outcome before filing deadline on April 23.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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