California's 14th congressional district, an East Bay area long rated solidly Democratic, faces a special election following the April 2026 resignation of incumbent Eric Swalwell. The June 16 special primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 special general election, with no Republican reaching the top two. This all-Democratic matchup in a district with a strong partisan lean underpins the current trader consensus, as the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the final margin. The November 2026 regular election remains separate but follows similar structural dynamics. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal or unforeseen ballot issues represent the narrowest paths to altering the outcome before the special general resolves.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -14 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$35,456 वॉल्यूम
$35,456 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
2%
$35,456 वॉल्यूम
$35,456 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$13,700 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$21,756 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, an East Bay area long rated solidly Democratic, faces a special election following the April 2026 resignation of incumbent Eric Swalwell. The June 16 special primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 special general election, with no Republican reaching the top two. This all-Democratic matchup in a district with a strong partisan lean underpins the current trader consensus, as the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the final margin. The November 2026 regular election remains separate but follows similar structural dynamics. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal or unforeseen ballot issues represent the narrowest paths to altering the outcome before the special general resolves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,456समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, an East Bay area long rated solidly Democratic, faces a special election following the April 2026 resignation of incumbent Eric Swalwell. The June 16 special primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 special general election, with no Republican reaching the top two. This all-Democratic matchup in a district with a strong partisan lean underpins the current trader consensus, as the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the final margin. The November 2026 regular election remains separate but follows similar structural dynamics. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal or unforeseen ballot issues represent the narrowest paths to altering the outcome before the special general resolves.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,456समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, an East Bay area long rated solidly Democratic, faces a special election following the April 2026 resignation of incumbent Eric Swalwell. The June 16 special primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 special general election, with no Republican reaching the top two. This all-Democratic matchup in a district with a strong partisan lean underpins the current trader consensus, as the winner will be a Democrat regardless of the final margin. The November 2026 regular election remains separate but follows similar structural dynamics. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal or unforeseen ballot issues represent the narrowest paths to altering the outcome before the special general resolves.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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