Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
$27,331 वॉल्यूम
$27,331 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
जिम कोस्टा (ड)
94%
काइल किर्कलैंड (आर)
7%
$27,331 वॉल्यूम
$27,331 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
जिम कोस्टा (ड)
$15,163 वॉल्यूम
94%
काइल किर्कलैंड (आर)
$12,168 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,331समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$27,331समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 2005, strong name recognition in the Central Valley, and consistent reelection margins, including 52.6% in 2024. The district's Democratic registration edge and ratings as Likely Democratic from outlets such as the Cook Political Report reinforce trader consensus around his position. Costa's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $1 million compared to Republican challenger Kyle Kirkland's roughly $300,000, has supported broader outreach ahead of the November 3 general election. Kirkland, a casino owner and 2024 candidate in a neighboring district, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary but trails due to vote splitting among other Republicans and limited resources. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national partisan shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late developments affecting Costa, though the current structure favors the incumbent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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