Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices a razor-thin lead for moderate-leaning Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round or runoff, closely trailed by right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (41.9%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (37.5%), underscoring a fragmented, polarized race with no clear frontrunner. March 8 legislative primaries and congressional elections consolidated the Historic Pact behind Cepeda with a plurality of seats but no majority, while Valencia's strong Democratic Center primary performance propelled her surge, though her vote splits with independent Abelardo de la Espriella (18.5%). Recent polls like AtlasIntel's April fieldwork show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 39% amid Petro's lame-duck unpopularity, economic strains, and security woes, yet markets reflect moderate appeal and runoff uncertainties; separation could stem from endorsements, debates, or scandals before the vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोलंबिया राष्ट्रपति चुनाव
कोलंबिया राष्ट्रपति चुनाव
पलोमा वेलेंसिया 41.9%
इवान सेपेडा कास्त्रो 38%
एबेलार्डो डी ला एस्प्रिएला 19%
क्लाउडिया लोपेज़ (स्वतंत्र) <1%
$20,245,987 वॉल्यूम
$20,245,987 वॉल्यूम
पलोमा वेलेंसिया
42%
इवान सेपेडा कास्त्रो
38%
एबेलार्डो डी ला एस्प्रिएला
19%
क्लाउडिया लोपेज़ (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
सर्जियो फजार्दो (डीसी)
<1%
लुइस गिल्बर्टो मुरिलो (सीआरबी)
<1%
जुआन डैनियल ओवीएदो (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
कार्लोस फेलिपे कोरडोबा
<1%
विक्की डाविला (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
गुस्तावो बोलिवार (एचसी)
<1%
जुआन मैनुअल गालान (एनएल)
<1%
जर्मन वर्गास ल्लेरा (आरसी)
<1%
मौरिसियो कार्डेनास
<1%
डैनियल किंटेरेो
<1%
रॉय बैरेरस
<1%
एनरिक पेञालोसा
<1%
जुआन कार्लोस पिंज़ोन
<1%
डेविड लूना सांचेज़ (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
पलोमा वेलेंसिया 41.9%
इवान सेपेडा कास्त्रो 38%
एबेलार्डो डी ला एस्प्रिएला 19%
क्लाउडिया लोपेज़ (स्वतंत्र) <1%
$20,245,987 वॉल्यूम
$20,245,987 वॉल्यूम
पलोमा वेलेंसिया
42%
इवान सेपेडा कास्त्रो
38%
एबेलार्डो डी ला एस्प्रिएला
19%
क्लाउडिया लोपेज़ (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
सर्जियो फजार्दो (डीसी)
<1%
लुइस गिल्बर्टो मुरिलो (सीआरबी)
<1%
जुआन डैनियल ओवीएदो (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
कार्लोस फेलिपे कोरडोबा
<1%
विक्की डाविला (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
गुस्तावो बोलिवार (एचसी)
<1%
जुआन मैनुअल गालान (एनएल)
<1%
जर्मन वर्गास ल्लेरा (आरसी)
<1%
मौरिसियो कार्डेनास
<1%
डैनियल किंटेरेो
<1%
रॉय बैरेरस
<1%
एनरिक पेञालोसा
<1%
जुआन कार्लोस पिंज़ोन
<1%
डेविड लूना सांचेज़ (स्वतंत्र)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Colombia presidential election market prices a razor-thin lead for moderate-leaning Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win the May 31 first round or runoff, closely trailed by right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia (41.9%) and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro (37.5%), underscoring a fragmented, polarized race with no clear frontrunner. March 8 legislative primaries and congressional elections consolidated the Historic Pact behind Cepeda with a plurality of seats but no majority, while Valencia's strong Democratic Center primary performance propelled her surge, though her vote splits with independent Abelardo de la Espriella (18.5%). Recent polls like AtlasIntel's April fieldwork show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 39% amid Petro's lame-duck unpopularity, economic strains, and security woes, yet markets reflect moderate appeal and runoff uncertainties; separation could stem from endorsements, debates, or scandals before the vote.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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