Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75.5% implied probability for the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his party's strong local foothold via sitting TD Gary Gannon and Ennis's profile on housing reform, poverty alleviation, and cost-of-living pressures in this diverse, working-class four-seat constituency. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan holds second at 13.2%, buoyed by leader Mary Lou McDonald's presence but facing vote fragmentation in the crowded field including independents like Gerry Hutch. Recent candidate selections—Fine Gael's Lord Mayor Ray McAdam and Fianna Fáil's John Stephens in late March—have solidified the race, with transfers under single transferable vote expected to prove decisive ahead of the May polling day alongside Galway West. Government parties lag due to historical weakness post-Bertie Ahern era.