**Recent affirmations of the EU’s AAA (or equivalent) ratings with stable outlooks from Fitch (January 2026), Moody’s, and Scope (March 2026) underpin the 83% market-implied probability that no downgrade occurs before 2027.** These agencies highlight the bloc’s diversified funding base via NextGenerationEU programs, an average debt maturity exceeding 11 years that caps near-term refinancing risk, and strong backing from high-rated member states despite outstanding EU debt approaching €1 trillion by end-2026. S&P maintains its AA+ rating with a stable outlook, and no major agency has placed the EU on negative watch or revised outlooks lower in 2026. While euro-area debt-to-GDP reached 87.8% and the deficit 2.9% of GDP at end-2025—with modest growth projected at 1.1–1.3% for 2026—fiscal strains in individual members (such as France’s 2025 downgrades) have not translated into pressure on the supranational rating. Traders are monitoring 2026–2027 budget negotiations and any deterioration in core contributors’ credit profiles as the main swing factors, but current data and agency commentary support a low near-term downgrade risk.