Recent affirmations by major credit rating agencies, including Fitch’s January 2026 confirmation of the European Union’s AAA rating with a stable outlook and Moody’s March 2026 Aaa assessment, anchor the 82.5% market-implied probability against an EU debt downgrade before 2027. These ratings reflect strong member-state backing, resilient debt-servicing capacity despite the EU’s debt stock rising to EUR739 billion by end-2025, and the new fiscal framework’s emphasis on medium-term debt sustainability analyses. Core sovereign benchmarks such as Germany’s AAA remain intact, while 2025 adjustments for individual members like France were isolated rather than systemic. With no negative outlooks or watches issued in 2026, trader consensus prices in contained fiscal pressures and limited near-term catalysts through the 2027 horizon.