Persistent deficits and federal debt surpassing $39 trillion have elevated long-term fiscal risks, yet the 78.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another downgrade before 2027 reflects the May 2025 Moody’s move to Aa1 with a stable outlook. This aligned all three major agencies—S&P and Fitch at AA+, Moody’s at Aa1—below prior AAA levels without triggering follow-on pressure. Agencies continue to emphasize the economy’s scale, dollar reserve status, and independent monetary policy as offsets to debt-to-GDP trajectories. With outlooks stable and no fresh governance shocks or unresolved debt-ceiling crises materializing in the past year, trader consensus embeds the view that baseline fiscal paths alone are unlikely to prompt further notches absent sharper deterioration or policy reversals before year-end 2026.