Polymarket traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 2026 CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy spike amid Middle East tensions, which has sharply curbed rate-cut expectations from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate further support policy pause, pricing modest 10.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut on core disinflation trends while keeping hike probabilities below 5% amid balanced labor dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC projections.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 80%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 11%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.5%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 2.8%
$3,633,588 वॉल्यूम
$3,633,588 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
11%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
80%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 80%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 11%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 3.5%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 2.8%
$3,633,588 वॉल्यूम
$3,633,588 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$160,329 वॉल्यूम
3%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$109,674 वॉल्यूम
11%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$162,782 वॉल्यूम
80%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$3,013,763 वॉल्यूम
4%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$187,039 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 2026 CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy spike amid Middle East tensions, which has sharply curbed rate-cut expectations from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate further support policy pause, pricing modest 10.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut on core disinflation trends while keeping hike probabilities below 5% amid balanced labor dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,633,588समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 2026 CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy spike amid Middle East tensions, which has sharply curbed rate-cut expectations from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate further support policy pause, pricing modest 10.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut on core disinflation trends while keeping hike probabilities below 5% amid balanced labor dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$3,633,588समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 2026 CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year—highest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% monthly energy spike amid Middle East tensions, which has sharply curbed rate-cut expectations from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate further support policy pause, pricing modest 10.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut on core disinflation trends while keeping hike probabilities below 5% amid balanced labor dynamics. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC projections.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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