Trump’s approval rating has averaged in the mid-to-high 30s throughout much of 2026 after a steady decline from the start of his second term, with recent aggregates showing figures near 34-38 percent and net approval at record or near-record lows for the period. Primary drivers include the ongoing Iran conflict, which polls link to public concerns over costs and casualties, alongside persistent affordability and economic pressures ahead of the November midterms. Partisan polarization remains wide, with erosion among some Republican-leaning respondents and especially low support among younger voters. Historical comparisons note the ratings sit below those at a similar stage in his first term. Scheduled events that could influence movement include midterm outcomes, any shifts in foreign policy or economic indicators, and further legislative or executive actions. Trader assessments of the 2026 peak will hinge on whether these pressures ease enough to produce a rebound before year-end.