Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican Senate majority of 53 seats, with top outcomes clustered tightly at 51 (31.5%), 54 (31.3%), and 55 (28.7%) yes votes for Kevin Warsh as Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, implying expectations of one or two GOP defections amid uncertainty over financial disclosures revealing his $131 million fortune and extensive ties. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Senate Banking Committee member, continues to block advancement until the DOJ resolves its probe into Jerome Powell over alleged congressional testimony issues, stalling progress since January. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing next week, after prior delays, could clarify whip counts and sway holdouts, while probe updates or additional senator statements might widen spreads toward simpler majorities or ≤49 no votes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया54 31.3%
60+ 28%
58 26.9%
31 दिसंबर तक कोई वोट नहीं/वापस लिया गया 23.1%
$62,740 वॉल्यूम
$62,740 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
≤49
23%
50
4%
51
31%
52
24%
53
12%
54
31%
55
29%
56
2%
57
20%
58
27%
59
2%
60+
21%
31 दिसंबर तक कोई वोट नहीं/वापस लिया गया
23%
54 31.3%
60+ 28%
58 26.9%
31 दिसंबर तक कोई वोट नहीं/वापस लिया गया 23.1%
$62,740 वॉल्यूम
$62,740 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
≤49
$20,988 वॉल्यूम
23%
50
$0 वॉल्यूम
4%
51
$226 वॉल्यूम
31%
52
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
53
$221 वॉल्यूम
12%
54
$233 वॉल्यूम
31%
55
$0 वॉल्यूम
29%
56
$52 वॉल्यूम
2%
57
$0 वॉल्यूम
20%
58
$0 वॉल्यूम
27%
59
$388 वॉल्यूम
2%
60+
$40,632 वॉल्यूम
21%
31 दिसंबर तक कोई वोट नहीं/वापस लिया गया
$0 वॉल्यूम
23%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican Senate majority of 53 seats, with top outcomes clustered tightly at 51 (31.5%), 54 (31.3%), and 55 (28.7%) yes votes for Kevin Warsh as Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, implying expectations of one or two GOP defections amid uncertainty over financial disclosures revealing his $131 million fortune and extensive ties. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Senate Banking Committee member, continues to block advancement until the DOJ resolves its probe into Jerome Powell over alleged congressional testimony issues, stalling progress since January. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing next week, after prior delays, could clarify whip counts and sway holdouts, while probe updates or additional senator statements might widen spreads toward simpler majorities or ≤49 no votes.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$62,740समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican Senate majority of 53 seats, with top outcomes clustered tightly at 51 (31.5%), 54 (31.3%), and 55 (28.7%) yes votes for Kevin Warsh as Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, implying expectations of one or two GOP defections amid uncertainty over financial disclosures revealing his $131 million fortune and extensive ties. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Senate Banking Committee member, continues to block advancement until the DOJ resolves its probe into Jerome Powell over alleged congressional testimony issues, stalling progress since January. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing next week, after prior delays, could clarify whip counts and sway holdouts, while probe updates or additional senator statements might widen spreads toward simpler majorities or ≤49 no votes.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$62,740समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican Senate majority of 53 seats, with top outcomes clustered tightly at 51 (31.5%), 54 (31.3%), and 55 (28.7%) yes votes for Kevin Warsh as Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee, implying expectations of one or two GOP defections amid uncertainty over financial disclosures revealing his $131 million fortune and extensive ties. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a Senate Banking Committee member, continues to block advancement until the DOJ resolves its probe into Jerome Powell over alleged congressional testimony issues, stalling progress since January. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing next week, after prior delays, could clarify whip counts and sway holdouts, while probe updates or additional senator statements might widen spreads toward simpler majorities or ≤49 no votes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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