Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed major Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew and lost continuity of knowledge over stockpiles. Iran’s foreign minister stated the enriched uranium remains under rubble with no recovery plan, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. IAEA assessments continue to find no structured weaponization program or imminent test capability, amid ongoing bilateral negotiations aimed at verifiable limits. These infrastructure setbacks, diplomatic commitments, and short remaining window through 2026 underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$229,331 वॉल्यूम
$229,331 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$229,331 वॉल्यूम
$229,331 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed major Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew and lost continuity of knowledge over stockpiles. Iran’s foreign minister stated the enriched uranium remains under rubble with no recovery plan, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. IAEA assessments continue to find no structured weaponization program or imminent test capability, amid ongoing bilateral negotiations aimed at verifiable limits. These infrastructure setbacks, diplomatic commitments, and short remaining window through 2026 underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$229,331समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed major Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew and lost continuity of knowledge over stockpiles. Iran’s foreign minister stated the enriched uranium remains under rubble with no recovery plan, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. IAEA assessments continue to find no structured weaponization program or imminent test capability, amid ongoing bilateral negotiations aimed at verifiable limits. These infrastructure setbacks, diplomatic commitments, and short remaining window through 2026 underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$229,331समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed major Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA inspectors withdrew and lost continuity of knowledge over stockpiles. Iran’s foreign minister stated the enriched uranium remains under rubble with no recovery plan, and a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. IAEA assessments continue to find no structured weaponization program or imminent test capability, amid ongoing bilateral negotiations aimed at verifiable limits. These infrastructure setbacks, diplomatic commitments, and short remaining window through 2026 underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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