**Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, eliminating much of the installed centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible.** IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial attacks, and subsequent reporting shows Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, aligning with longstanding US intelligence assessments that Tehran halted any structured weapons program in 2003 and maintains no active weaponization efforts. These verified setbacks to breakout capacity, combined with diplomatic constraints and the absence of enrichment activity into mid-2026, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$229,800 वॉल्यूम
$229,800 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$229,800 वॉल्यूम
$229,800 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, eliminating much of the installed centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible.** IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial attacks, and subsequent reporting shows Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, aligning with longstanding US intelligence assessments that Tehran halted any structured weapons program in 2003 and maintains no active weaponization efforts. These verified setbacks to breakout capacity, combined with diplomatic constraints and the absence of enrichment activity into mid-2026, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$229,800समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, eliminating much of the installed centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible.** IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial attacks, and subsequent reporting shows Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, aligning with longstanding US intelligence assessments that Tehran halted any structured weapons program in 2003 and maintains no active weaponization efforts. These verified setbacks to breakout capacity, combined with diplomatic constraints and the absence of enrichment activity into mid-2026, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$229,800समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, eliminating much of the installed centrifuge capacity and leaving enriched uranium stockpiles buried or inaccessible.** IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial attacks, and subsequent reporting shows Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding includes Iran's reaffirmation that it will not develop nuclear weapons, aligning with longstanding US intelligence assessments that Tehran halted any structured weapons program in 2003 and maintains no active weaponization efforts. These verified setbacks to breakout capacity, combined with diplomatic constraints and the absence of enrichment activity into mid-2026, underpin traders' strong consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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