Arctic sea ice traders are pricing a 51.5% implied probability for a summer 2026 minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers, driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—leaving an exceptionally thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. This follows 2025's similarly low maximum and 4.86 million square kilometer minimum, amid a long-term decline where September extents have dropped over 12% per decade since 1979. Neutral ENSO conditions and early melt signals in April further support low-end outcomes, though atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could preserve more ice; watch May SIPN outlooks and NOAA model updates for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाइस गर्मी में न्यूनतम आर्कटिक समुद्री बर्फ की सीमा?
इस गर्मी में न्यूनतम आर्कटिक समुद्री बर्फ की सीमा?
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी 15.2%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.5%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.3%
$31,079 वॉल्यूम
$31,079 वॉल्यूम
1 अक्टू, 2026
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी
15%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
11%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
12%
4.6-4.8 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
10%
4.8-5 मिलियन वर्ग किलोमीटर
2%
5 मिलियन+ वर्ग किमी
1%
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी 15.2%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.5%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी 11.3%
$31,079 वॉल्यूम
$31,079 वॉल्यूम
1 अक्टू, 2026
<4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
$23,866 वॉल्यूम
52%
4.0-4.2m वर्ग किमी
$2,456 वॉल्यूम
15%
4.2-4.4 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
$787 वॉल्यूम
11%
4.4-4.6 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
$935 वॉल्यूम
12%
4.6-4.8 मिलियन वर्ग किमी
$1,670 वॉल्यूम
10%
4.8-5 मिलियन वर्ग किलोमीटर
$605 वॉल्यूम
2%
5 मिलियन+ वर्ग किमी
$760 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Arctic sea ice traders are pricing a 51.5% implied probability for a summer 2026 minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers, driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—leaving an exceptionally thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. This follows 2025's similarly low maximum and 4.86 million square kilometer minimum, amid a long-term decline where September extents have dropped over 12% per decade since 1979. Neutral ENSO conditions and early melt signals in April further support low-end outcomes, though atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could preserve more ice; watch May SIPN outlooks and NOAA model updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,079समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Arctic sea ice traders are pricing a 51.5% implied probability for a summer 2026 minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers, driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—leaving an exceptionally thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. This follows 2025's similarly low maximum and 4.86 million square kilometer minimum, amid a long-term decline where September extents have dropped over 12% per decade since 1979. Neutral ENSO conditions and early melt signals in April further support low-end outcomes, though atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could preserve more ice; watch May SIPN outlooks and NOAA model updates for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
वॉल्यूम
$31,079समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arctic sea ice traders are pricing a 51.5% implied probability for a summer 2026 minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers, driven primarily by the record-tying lowest winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements—leaving an exceptionally thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. This follows 2025's similarly low maximum and 4.86 million square kilometer minimum, amid a long-term decline where September extents have dropped over 12% per decade since 1979. Neutral ENSO conditions and early melt signals in April further support low-end outcomes, though atmospheric patterns like high-pressure blocking could preserve more ice; watch May SIPN outlooks and NOAA model updates for shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न