During Supreme Court oral arguments on March 23 in the Republican National Committee case challenging Mississippi's grace period for mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterward, a majority of justices—including conservatives—expressed deep skepticism toward such laws, appearing poised to rule them invalid under federal election statutes. This judicial signaling has shaped trader consensus, pricing a 79% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar counting late-arriving mail ballots nationwide, potentially affecting 14 states and the District of Columbia ahead of 2026 midterms. Election officials have warned of processing disruptions, while a decision remains pending, with historical patterns favoring strict deadlines near elections.