Recent August CPI data held steady at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, aligning with forecasts yet underscoring persistent pressures above the Fed's 2% target. Geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict have driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, boosting gasoline and energy components that accounted for much of the monthly gain, while trade frictions and AI-related demand add to pipeline costs. The Cleveland Fed nowcast points to a September reading near 3.43%, and consumer one-year inflation expectations have climbed to 4.6%. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered between 3.4% and 3.6%, traders weigh the extent of energy pass-through against shelter moderation and potential monetary policy responses at the upcoming FOMC meeting.