Treasury preparations for a $250 note featuring President Trump have advanced only through preliminary design work by political appointees, while the core barriers remain legislative. Federal law bars new denominations without congressional authorization and prohibits portraits of living individuals on currency, and the primary bill introduced in February 2025 has stalled in committee without hearings or votes. Recent Bureau of Engraving and Printing priorities center on existing denominations, signature updates, and security features rather than a new $250 bill, with no floor action or bipartisan support emerging by mid-2026. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” because these procedural and timing constraints leave scant room for enactment before year-end. A sudden lame-duck vote or unexpected amendment could still shift the outcome, though both face steep institutional hurdles.