Polymarket traders price a tight race between UK 2026 annual GDP contraction (<0% at 35% implied probability) and robust expansion (4-5% at 33%), reflecting polarized sentiment amid the Iran war's escalation. February 2026 GDP surged 0.5% month-on-month—beating forecasts and accelerating quarterly growth to 0.5%—signaling pre-conflict resilience in services and production, boosting bullish bets on a rebound if hostilities ease. However, the IMF's sharp downgrade to 0.8% growth from 1.3% underscores stagflation risks from soaring energy prices and inflation, potentially prompting Bank of England rate hikes that tip into recession. Consensus forecasts hover at 0.7-1.4% (OBR, KPMG, EY ITEM Club), but traders weigh war resolution and Q1 GDP data due May against entrenched headwinds like weak productivity and fiscal constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
<0 29%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
नया
नया
12 फ़र, 2027
<0
35%
0-1%
27%
1-2%
21%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
9%
4-5%
29%
5%+
6%
<0 29%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
नया
नया
12 फ़र, 2027
<0
$334 वॉल्यूम
35%
0-1%
$309 वॉल्यूम
27%
1-2%
$210 वॉल्यूम
21%
2-3%
$247 वॉल्यूम
7%
3-4%
$201 वॉल्यूम
9%
4-5%
$411 वॉल्यूम
29%
5%+
$252 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a tight race between UK 2026 annual GDP contraction (<0% at 35% implied probability) and robust expansion (4-5% at 33%), reflecting polarized sentiment amid the Iran war's escalation. February 2026 GDP surged 0.5% month-on-month—beating forecasts and accelerating quarterly growth to 0.5%—signaling pre-conflict resilience in services and production, boosting bullish bets on a rebound if hostilities ease. However, the IMF's sharp downgrade to 0.8% growth from 1.3% underscores stagflation risks from soaring energy prices and inflation, potentially prompting Bank of England rate hikes that tip into recession. Consensus forecasts hover at 0.7-1.4% (OBR, KPMG, EY ITEM Club), but traders weigh war resolution and Q1 GDP data due May against entrenched headwinds like weak productivity and fiscal constraints.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,964समाप्ति तिथि
12 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a tight race between UK 2026 annual GDP contraction (<0% at 35% implied probability) and robust expansion (4-5% at 33%), reflecting polarized sentiment amid the Iran war's escalation. February 2026 GDP surged 0.5% month-on-month—beating forecasts and accelerating quarterly growth to 0.5%—signaling pre-conflict resilience in services and production, boosting bullish bets on a rebound if hostilities ease. However, the IMF's sharp downgrade to 0.8% growth from 1.3% underscores stagflation risks from soaring energy prices and inflation, potentially prompting Bank of England rate hikes that tip into recession. Consensus forecasts hover at 0.7-1.4% (OBR, KPMG, EY ITEM Club), but traders weigh war resolution and Q1 GDP data due May against entrenched headwinds like weak productivity and fiscal constraints.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$1,964समाप्ति तिथि
12 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight race between UK 2026 annual GDP contraction (<0% at 35% implied probability) and robust expansion (4-5% at 33%), reflecting polarized sentiment amid the Iran war's escalation. February 2026 GDP surged 0.5% month-on-month—beating forecasts and accelerating quarterly growth to 0.5%—signaling pre-conflict resilience in services and production, boosting bullish bets on a rebound if hostilities ease. However, the IMF's sharp downgrade to 0.8% growth from 1.3% underscores stagflation risks from soaring energy prices and inflation, potentially prompting Bank of England rate hikes that tip into recession. Consensus forecasts hover at 0.7-1.4% (OBR, KPMG, EY ITEM Club), but traders weigh war resolution and Q1 GDP data due May against entrenched headwinds like weak productivity and fiscal constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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