Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.6% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, narrowly ahead of 0.6-0.9% at 31.3%, reflecting tight competition amid softening economic indicators. January 2026 monthly GDP stagnated at 0% month-on-month after Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, while unemployment rose to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from February's 53.7, signaling decelerating services activity that dominates UK output. The Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast trimmed 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, citing labor market slack, though Pantheon Macroeconomics sees 0.4% Q1 growth. Key swing factors include February monthly GDP details and Middle East tensions lifting inflation risks; the preliminary Q1 estimate, due late April, will resolve the market.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0.3-0.6% 37.6%
0.6-0.9% 31.0%
0.0-0.3% 23%
0.9-1.2% 6.4%
$22,686 वॉल्यूम
$22,686 वॉल्यूम
14 मई, 2026
नकारात्मक
6%
0.0-0.3%
23%
0.3-0.6%
38%
0.6-0.9%
31%
0.9-1.2%
6%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%+
2%
0.3-0.6% 37.6%
0.6-0.9% 31.0%
0.0-0.3% 23%
0.9-1.2% 6.4%
$22,686 वॉल्यूम
$22,686 वॉल्यूम
14 मई, 2026
नकारात्मक
$1,899 वॉल्यूम
6%
0.0-0.3%
$9,446 वॉल्यूम
23%
0.3-0.6%
$1,359 वॉल्यूम
38%
0.6-0.9%
$7,124 वॉल्यूम
31%
0.9-1.2%
$650 वॉल्यूम
6%
1.2-1.5%
$663 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.5-1.8%
$576 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.8%+
$969 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.6% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, narrowly ahead of 0.6-0.9% at 31.3%, reflecting tight competition amid softening economic indicators. January 2026 monthly GDP stagnated at 0% month-on-month after Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, while unemployment rose to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from February's 53.7, signaling decelerating services activity that dominates UK output. The Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast trimmed 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, citing labor market slack, though Pantheon Macroeconomics sees 0.4% Q1 growth. Key swing factors include February monthly GDP details and Middle East tensions lifting inflation risks; the preliminary Q1 estimate, due late April, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$22,686समाप्ति तिथि
14 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.6% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, narrowly ahead of 0.6-0.9% at 31.3%, reflecting tight competition amid softening economic indicators. January 2026 monthly GDP stagnated at 0% month-on-month after Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, while unemployment rose to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from February's 53.7, signaling decelerating services activity that dominates UK output. The Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast trimmed 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, citing labor market slack, though Pantheon Macroeconomics sees 0.4% Q1 growth. Key swing factors include February monthly GDP details and Middle East tensions lifting inflation risks; the preliminary Q1 estimate, due late April, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$22,686समाप्ति तिथि
14 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.6% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3-0.6%, narrowly ahead of 0.6-0.9% at 31.3%, reflecting tight competition amid softening economic indicators. January 2026 monthly GDP stagnated at 0% month-on-month after Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion, while unemployment rose to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from February's 53.7, signaling decelerating services activity that dominates UK output. The Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast trimmed 2026 annual growth to 1.1%, citing labor market slack, though Pantheon Macroeconomics sees 0.4% Q1 growth. Key swing factors include February monthly GDP details and Middle East tensions lifting inflation risks; the preliminary Q1 estimate, due late April, will resolve the market.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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