Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #3 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants holding the top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 and 1496 as of April 14. Anthropic's dominance in reasoning and coding benchmarks, bolstered by consistent vote accumulation, underpins this lead, with traders anticipating their Sonnet 4.6 or further optimization to claim #3 amid stabilizing rankings. Meta's Muse Spark recently debuted at preliminary #3 (1495 Elo), earning 17.5% odds after its April 10 launch showcased multimodal strengths, though its nascent vote count leaves room for slippage. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), while OpenAI and xAI trail; watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges in the final two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 78%
मेटा 16%
गूगल 2.5%
ओपनएआई 2.2%
$54,513 वॉल्यूम
$54,513 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
Anthropic
78%
मेटा
16%
गूगल
3%
ओपनएआई
2%
xAI
1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
डीपसीक
<1%
मिस्टरल
<1%
Meituan
<1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
बाइडू
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 78%
मेटा 16%
गूगल 2.5%
ओपनएआई 2.2%
$54,513 वॉल्यूम
$54,513 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
Anthropic
$13,095 वॉल्यूम
78%
मेटा
$2,365 वॉल्यूम
16%
गूगल
$6,117 वॉल्यूम
3%
ओपनएआई
$2,913 वॉल्यूम
2%
xAI
$4,423 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$2,383 वॉल्यूम
<1%
ByteDance
$2,551 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$4,216 वॉल्यूम
<1%
डीपसीक
$2,704 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्टरल
$2,606 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$1,996 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मूनशॉट
$3,174 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइडू
$2,017 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$3,852 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Microsoft
$102 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #3 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants holding the top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 and 1496 as of April 14. Anthropic's dominance in reasoning and coding benchmarks, bolstered by consistent vote accumulation, underpins this lead, with traders anticipating their Sonnet 4.6 or further optimization to claim #3 amid stabilizing rankings. Meta's Muse Spark recently debuted at preliminary #3 (1495 Elo), earning 17.5% odds after its April 10 launch showcased multimodal strengths, though its nascent vote count leaves room for slippage. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), while OpenAI and xAI trail; watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$54,513समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #3 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants holding the top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 and 1496 as of April 14. Anthropic's dominance in reasoning and coding benchmarks, bolstered by consistent vote accumulation, underpins this lead, with traders anticipating their Sonnet 4.6 or further optimization to claim #3 amid stabilizing rankings. Meta's Muse Spark recently debuted at preliminary #3 (1495 Elo), earning 17.5% odds after its April 10 launch showcased multimodal strengths, though its nascent vote count leaves room for slippage. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), while OpenAI and xAI trail; watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$54,513समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 77.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #3 spot on the LMArena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking and base variants holding the top two positions with Elo scores of 1502 and 1496 as of April 14. Anthropic's dominance in reasoning and coding benchmarks, bolstered by consistent vote accumulation, underpins this lead, with traders anticipating their Sonnet 4.6 or further optimization to claim #3 amid stabilizing rankings. Meta's Muse Spark recently debuted at preliminary #3 (1495 Elo), earning 17.5% odds after its April 10 launch showcased multimodal strengths, though its nascent vote count leaves room for slippage. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview lurks at #4 (1493), while OpenAI and xAI trail; watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges in the final two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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