Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no development expected in the next seven days, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Historical data underscores this confidence: verifiable records since 1851 show fewer than a dozen hurricanes before June 1, none in the modern satellite era amid typically cool sea surface temperatures, high vertical wind shear, and subdued African monsoon activity this early. Preseason forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño emergence, further suppressing genesis. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalously rapid warming in the tropical Atlantic or an unforeseen strong easterly wave in late May, though NHC updates will provide the next key data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
क्या 31 मई तक तूफ़ान बन जाएगा?
हाँ
$41,738 वॉल्यूम
$41,738 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
हाँ
$41,738 वॉल्यूम
$41,738 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no development expected in the next seven days, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Historical data underscores this confidence: verifiable records since 1851 show fewer than a dozen hurricanes before June 1, none in the modern satellite era amid typically cool sea surface temperatures, high vertical wind shear, and subdued African monsoon activity this early. Preseason forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño emergence, further suppressing genesis. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalously rapid warming in the tropical Atlantic or an unforeseen strong easterly wave in late May, though NHC updates will provide the next key data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$41,738समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no development expected in the next seven days, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Historical data underscores this confidence: verifiable records since 1851 show fewer than a dozen hurricanes before June 1, none in the modern satellite era amid typically cool sea surface temperatures, high vertical wind shear, and subdued African monsoon activity this early. Preseason forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño emergence, further suppressing genesis. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalously rapid warming in the tropical Atlantic or an unforeseen strong easterly wave in late May, though NHC updates will provide the next key data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
वॉल्यूम
$41,738समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment of no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no development expected in the next seven days, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Historical data underscores this confidence: verifiable records since 1851 show fewer than a dozen hurricanes before June 1, none in the modern satellite era amid typically cool sea surface temperatures, high vertical wind shear, and subdued African monsoon activity this early. Preseason forecasts from Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño emergence, further suppressing genesis. Realistic shifts could arise from anomalously rapid warming in the tropical Atlantic or an unforeseen strong easterly wave in late May, though NHC updates will provide the next key data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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