Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% that Canada's 2026 population drop will be the largest on record, reflecting Statistics Canada data showing a 103,504-person decline (-0.2%) into January 1, 2026—the second straight quarterly drop driven by a plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened immigration caps. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February forecast projects flat growth for full-year 2026, with new temporary resident arrivals slashed to 385,000 from 673,000 in 2025 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 against negative natural increase. While late-2025 declines marked records since the 1940s, upcoming quarterly estimates through year-end are expected to prevent surpassing historical annual benchmarks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2027
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% that Canada's 2026 population drop will be the largest on record, reflecting Statistics Canada data showing a 103,504-person decline (-0.2%) into January 1, 2026—the second straight quarterly drop driven by a plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened immigration caps. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February forecast projects flat growth for full-year 2026, with new temporary resident arrivals slashed to 385,000 from 673,000 in 2025 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 against negative natural increase. While late-2025 declines marked records since the 1940s, upcoming quarterly estimates through year-end are expected to prevent surpassing historical annual benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,478समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% that Canada's 2026 population drop will be the largest on record, reflecting Statistics Canada data showing a 103,504-person decline (-0.2%) into January 1, 2026—the second straight quarterly drop driven by a plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened immigration caps. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February forecast projects flat growth for full-year 2026, with new temporary resident arrivals slashed to 385,000 from 673,000 in 2025 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 against negative natural increase. While late-2025 declines marked records since the 1940s, upcoming quarterly estimates through year-end are expected to prevent surpassing historical annual benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$1,478समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% that Canada's 2026 population drop will be the largest on record, reflecting Statistics Canada data showing a 103,504-person decline (-0.2%) into January 1, 2026—the second straight quarterly drop driven by a plunge in non-permanent residents amid tightened immigration caps. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's February forecast projects flat growth for full-year 2026, with new temporary resident arrivals slashed to 385,000 from 673,000 in 2025 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, stabilizing permanent resident targets at 380,000 against negative natural increase. While late-2025 declines marked records since the 1940s, upcoming quarterly estimates through year-end are expected to prevent surpassing historical annual benchmarks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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