Canada’s population has recorded multiple quarterly declines since mid-2025, driven by federal immigration policy shifts that sharply reduced non-permanent resident inflows and produced net outflows. The 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan set temporary resident targets at 385,000 for 2026 (down from prior peaks above 670,000) and stabilized permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually, while pursuing a reduction of the temporary population share below 5 percent by 2027. Statistics Canada data show a 55,025-person drop in Q1 2026 alone, contributing to an estimated cumulative decline exceeding 234,000 since July 2025—the first annual contraction on record. These sustained outflows, combined with lower permanent inflows and minimal natural increase, position 2026 for a larger full-year net loss than prior historical episodes, supporting the elevated market probability for the largest recorded annual drop.