Arizona's 9th congressional district carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered large Republican margins, including double-digit victories for incumbent Paul Gosar in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Gosar faces only nominal primary opposition on July 21, while the Democratic field remains limited. These structural factors, combined with the district's rural western Arizona composition, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A late primary upset, an unforeseen national Democratic surge, or a significant personal controversy involving the incumbent would represent the primary paths to narrowing the gap, though each faces steep historical and demographic headwinds in this environment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,873 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$3,996 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered large Republican margins, including double-digit victories for incumbent Paul Gosar in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Gosar faces only nominal primary opposition on July 21, while the Democratic field remains limited. These structural factors, combined with the district's rural western Arizona composition, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A late primary upset, an unforeseen national Democratic surge, or a significant personal controversy involving the incumbent would represent the primary paths to narrowing the gap, though each faces steep historical and demographic headwinds in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,869Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered large Republican margins, including double-digit victories for incumbent Paul Gosar in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Gosar faces only nominal primary opposition on July 21, while the Democratic field remains limited. These structural factors, combined with the district's rural western Arizona composition, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A late primary upset, an unforeseen national Democratic surge, or a significant personal controversy involving the incumbent would represent the primary paths to narrowing the gap, though each faces steep historical and demographic headwinds in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,869Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 9th congressional district carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered large Republican margins, including double-digit victories for incumbent Paul Gosar in recent cycles. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 2026 general election. Gosar faces only nominal primary opposition on July 21, while the Democratic field remains limited. These structural factors, combined with the district's rural western Arizona composition, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. A late primary upset, an unforeseen national Democratic surge, or a significant personal controversy involving the incumbent would represent the primary paths to narrowing the gap, though each faces steep historical and demographic headwinds in this environment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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