The deeply Republican character of Arizona's 9th congressional district, where recent presidential and House results favored GOP candidates by wide margins, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Paul Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky faces a structurally disadvantaged general-election matchup on November 3. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent historical performance limit Democratic viability absent major unforeseen developments. Late-cycle factors such as a national political shift, candidate health events, or significant local scandals could theoretically narrow the gap, though the current district fundamentals and incumbency advantage make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$12,919 Vol.
$12,919 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
3%
$12,919 Vol.
$12,919 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,151 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$8,768 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The deeply Republican character of Arizona's 9th congressional district, where recent presidential and House results favored GOP candidates by wide margins, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Paul Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky faces a structurally disadvantaged general-election matchup on November 3. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent historical performance limit Democratic viability absent major unforeseen developments. Late-cycle factors such as a national political shift, candidate health events, or significant local scandals could theoretically narrow the gap, though the current district fundamentals and incumbency advantage make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,919Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The deeply Republican character of Arizona's 9th congressional district, where recent presidential and House results favored GOP candidates by wide margins, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Paul Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky faces a structurally disadvantaged general-election matchup on November 3. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent historical performance limit Democratic viability absent major unforeseen developments. Late-cycle factors such as a national political shift, candidate health events, or significant local scandals could theoretically narrow the gap, though the current district fundamentals and incumbency advantage make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,919Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The deeply Republican character of Arizona's 9th congressional district, where recent presidential and House results favored GOP candidates by wide margins, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Paul Gosar advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky faces a structurally disadvantaged general-election matchup on November 3. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent historical performance limit Democratic viability absent major unforeseen developments. Late-cycle factors such as a national political shift, candidate health events, or significant local scandals could theoretically narrow the gap, though the current district fundamentals and incumbency advantage make substantial movement improbable before Election Day.
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